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FXAK68 PAFC 240134
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOG IN
SOUTHCENTRAL LINGERS ON. THIS MEANS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS BETWEEN LOWER AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN CALM DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, KODIAK ISLAND'S FORECAST DIFFERS
GREATLY. THEY WILL SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE A SHORTWAVE AND A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
ISLAND. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD BE SEEN BY SUNDAY. ALSO,
GUSTY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY STARTING SATURDAY MORNING FOR
SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE WATERS WEST OF SITKINAK ISLAND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AS
TWO UPPER LOWS COMPRESS IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST.
EVENTUALLY, A LARGE COL THAT SPANS SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL FORM.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN SIMILAR FOR MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL (DRY AND
CALM), BUT WITH THE RIDGE OUT OF THE WAY THE INVERSION WILL BREAK
DOWN AND A PATTERN CHANGE LOOMS.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND MOVES NORTHEAST AND SENDS A FRONT
INLAND. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BRING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE MAINLAND INCLUDING THE KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, AND
THE MAT-SU VALLEY WITH MORE MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT
THIS SCENARIO. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL THESE AREAS
WILL RECEIVE AND IF THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BECOMES SATURATED. WEATHER BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS AS MANY WEAK WAVES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA.
-JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING OFF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC IS WORKING TO SHUNT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CARRIED ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RAIN/SNOW AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, INCLUDING UNALASKA
TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF
SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST AND WESTERN CAPES FROM DILLINGHAM
TO CAPE NEWENHAM. RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO TRACK THAT FAR NORTH. IF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
DOES FALL, IT WILL BE LIGHT. THERE ARE LESSER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES
FOR FREEZING RAIN TO REACH AS FAR AS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DELTA MAY HELP KEEP THE
COLDER, DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND MITIGATE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN. STAY TUNED AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE AND THE
FORECAST IS REFINED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, MOSTLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A CORE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. WIDESPREAD SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER KAMCHATKA AND THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOWS WILL LIFT IN SUCCESSION
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING, KEEPING
WINDY AND WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN COMFORTABLY SITTING OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA LOOKS TO FLATTEN EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
LOW FROM THE YUKON MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TO THE YK DELTA BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO APPEAR LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH WINDCHILLS
APPROACHING MINUS 30 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. OFFSHORE,
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SEEMS LIKELY WHICH RAISES CONCERNS
FOR HEAVY TO EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE ARCTIC
LOW MARCHING WEST AND PHASING WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FLATTENING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA, COULD REBUILD ACROSS FROM THE ALCAN
BORDER WEST, BUT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
MAINLAND SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED LOWS
WITHIN THIS FLOW TO TRACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST SEEMS VERY LIKELY, BUT DETAILS WOULD DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TRACK AS ITS INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN COULD AID IN THE
ENHANCEMENT OR DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME, THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODELS LEANING TOWARDS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT THE ONSET) SETTING UP IN NORTHERN COOK INLET FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE LOWS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACES FEATURES THOUGH.
RUX
AVIATION
PANC...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS, WITH
IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING OR DRIVING WIND
FLOW. THE TIMING OF DENSEST FOG REMAINS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST,
AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, AS
WELL AS HOW VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY AFFECT FOG
FORMATION AND ADVECTION.
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