213
FXAK68 PAFC 241350
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA TO THE NORTH AND A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AKPEN.
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES, AND
POCKETS OF FOG FOR INLAND VALLEYS. THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN TODAY AS IT GETS SQUISHED BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINANT SYSTEMS
BEFORE GETTING SHEARED APART BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TRYING TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO
REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG. KODIAK ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE WATERS WEST OF SITKINAK
ISLAND THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, A BACKDOOR ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE BEAUFORT LOW. YESTERDAY, THE FRONT LOOKED TO
STALL NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE THE
FRONT PUSHING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN. THE ARCTIC LOW WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING SET-UP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND UP
TOWARDS THE MAT-SU VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL ALSO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE THE SOUTHERN COPPER BASIN AS STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS TO OVER THE BASIN. MOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH THE WESTERN KENAI UP THROUGH THE
MAT-SU VALLEY SEEING UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND
THE SOUTHERN COPPER BASIN. THE WORKWEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL MORE DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA
CONTINUES TO SHUNT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS THE AKPEN
AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN HAS BEGUN TO
OVERSPREAD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING
UNALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO THE BERING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER SIDE, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST, WESTERN CAPES, AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THOUGH OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR
DILLINGHAM BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE WESTERN CAPES NORTH THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, GENERALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER KAMCHATKA AND THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOWS WILL LIFT IN SUCCESSION
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING, KEEPING
WINDY AND WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN COMFORTABLY SITTING OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA LOOKS TO FLATTEN EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
LOW FROM THE YUKON MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TO THE YK DELTA BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO APPEAR LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH WINDCHILLS
APPROACHING MINUS 30 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. OFFSHORE,
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SEEMS LIKELY WHICH RAISES CONCERNS
FOR HEAVY TO EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE ARCTIC
LOW MARCHING WEST AND PHASING WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FLATTENING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA, COULD REBUILD ACROSS FROM THE ALCAN
BORDER WEST, BUT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
MAINLAND SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED LOWS
WITHIN THIS FLOW TO TRACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST SEEMS VERY LIKELY, BUT DETAILS WOULD DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TRACK AS ITS INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN COULD AID IN THE
ENHANCEMENT OR DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME, THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODELS LEANING TOWARDS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT THE ONSET) SETTING UP IN NORTHERN COOK INLET FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE LOWS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACES FEATURES THOUGH.
RUX
AVIATION
PANC...PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS,
WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING OR DRIVING WIND
FLOW. THE TIMING OF DENSEST FOG REMAINS CHALLENGING TO FORECAST,
AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, AS
WELL AS HOW VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MAY AFFECT FOG
FORMATION AND ADVECTION.
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