798
FXAK68 PAFC 250219
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
519 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED BY THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, A LARGE COL HAS
FORMED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRIER AND
CALMER. THIS MEANS THAT THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH CALM
WINDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS DURING THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE GULF COAST, NORTH
COOK INLET AROUND ANCHORAGE, AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. KODIAK
ISLAND CONTINUES TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
IN KODIAK CITY WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND ON MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PULL IN MOISTURE UP FROM
THE GULF AND ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING THE
KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, THE MAT-SU VALLEY, AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA IS AIDING IN
STEERING THE MOISTURE UP THE COOK INLET. THE TIMING FOR WHEN
SNOWFALL WILL START IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT IT WILL BEGIN SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING FOR ANCHORAGE AND
THE KENAI PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF SNOW, WITH THE
SECOND PUSH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WHEN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN SEES ITS MOST SNOWFALL. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT
BEING SOUTHWESTERLY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE BAND OF SNOW WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AROUND PALMER. 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HATCHER
PASS. VALDEZ AND THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
THOMPSON PASS RECEIVING GREATER AMOUNTS. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
COULD ALSO SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS AND A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COULD MEAN MORE OR LESS SNOWFALL. THE
ECMWF MODEL HAS THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER EAST, RESULTING IN MUCH
LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
-JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
A FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRINGS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN TO THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST, WESTERN CAPES, AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS FOR A LIGHT GLAZE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY COAST. FREEZING RAIN FALLING ONTO FROZEN OR SNOW-
COVERED GROUND IS LIKELY TO CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA TODAY, BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, WITH A LARGE AREA OF GALES MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING BY MONDAY MORNING.
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ICE EDGE.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER KAMCHATKA AND
THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOWS WILL LIFT IN SUCCESSION FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING, KEEPING WINDY AND WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN COMFORTABLY SITTING OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA LOOKS TO FLATTEN EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
LOW FROM THE YUKON MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TO THE YK DELTA BY
MIDWEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO APPEAR LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH WINDCHILLS
APPROACHING MINUS 30 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. OFFSHORE,
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SEEMS LIKELY WHICH RAISES CONCERNS
FOR HEAVY TO EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE ARCTIC
LOW MARCHING WEST AND PHASING WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FLATTENING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA, COULD REBUILD ACROSS FROM THE ALCAN
BORDER WEST, BUT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
MAINLAND SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED LOWS
WITHIN THIS FLOW TO TRACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
STILL POOR FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST SEEMS VERY LIKELY, BUT DETAILS WOULD DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TRACK AS ITS INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN COULD AID IN THE
ENHANCEMENT OR DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.
RUX
AVIATION
PANC...ANOTHER PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL
FOG (IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS) REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF DENSEST FOG REMAINS A
CHALLENGE, BUT WOULD MORE LIKELY OCCUR SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS,
12 TO 20Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES IN VFR. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW IN THE
VICINITY AFTER 02Z MON, BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 06Z MON.
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