781
FXAK68 PAFC 251332
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKST SUN JAN 25 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY THIS WEEK.
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND. THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE
TODAY, CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
YESTERDAY, THE CITY OF KODIAK RECORDED 2.18" OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS IS THE MOST RECORDED ON JANUARY 24TH SINCE RECORDS BEGAN;
BEATING OUT JANUARY 24, 1976 BY 0.02".
ELSEWHERE, THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS/FOG. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA ALONG WITH
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COOK INLET, MAT-SU VALLEYS AND
ANCHORAGE. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING.
A POLAR LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE INTERIOR AND REACH THE BERING SEA
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES AND ITS EXACT
TRACK REMAIN INCONSISTENT, IT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON SOUTHCENTRAL
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWESTWARD, A LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD TOWARD PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND/KENAI PENINSULA BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD, WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE COASTAL AREAS
FIRST AND LATER, TO THE COPPER BASIN, THE MAT-SU VALLEYS AND
ANCHORAGE. SIGNALS ARE INCREASING THAT THIS LATTER WAVE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT TUESDAY FOR ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU VALLEYS. FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND CURRENT WINTER
SEASON PATTERNS LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FALLING IN THE COPPER BASIN WESTWARD TO THE MAT-SU VALLEYS. THOUGH
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DURING THIS TIME, IT IS
ALSO IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE LOWEST QPF. PRELIMINARY SNOW TOTALS
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES IN ANCHORAGE TO 4 TO 8 IN THE MAT-SU
VALLEYS AND COPPER BASIN. A LONG DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
THUS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THOMPSON PASS DURING
THIS TIME WITH EARLY SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 12 TO 18 INCHES. AGAIN,
IT IS WORTH REITERATING THAT THE LOCATION OF THE GULF LOW AND ITS
WAVES OF MOISTURE BRINGING THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IS
DEPENDENT ON THE POLAR LOW MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA,
INTRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
A FRONT LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
BROUGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST AND THE WESTERN CAPES OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN, LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS JUST BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM A LIGHT GLAZE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TODAY. FREEZING
RAIN FALLING ONTO FROZEN OR SNOW- COVERED GROUND IS LIKELY TO
CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA TODAY, BECOMING
LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN DRIFTS
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, WITH A LARGE AREA OF
GALES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING BY MONDAY MORNING.
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY
THIS WEEK, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE ICE EDGE.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER KAMCHATKA AND
THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOWS WILL LIFT IN SUCCESSION FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING, KEEPING WINDY AND WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN COMFORTABLY SITTING OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA LOOKS TO FLATTEN EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
LOW FROM THE YUKON MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TO THE YK DELTA BY
MIDWEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO APPEAR LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH WINDCHILLS
APPROACHING MINUS 30 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. OFFSHORE,
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SEEMS LIKELY WHICH RAISES CONCERNS
FOR HEAVY TO EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE ARCTIC
LOW MARCHING WEST AND PHASING WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FLATTENING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA, COULD REBUILD ACROSS FROM THE ALCAN
BORDER WEST, BUT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
MAINLAND SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED LOWS
WITHIN THIS FLOW TO TRACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
STILL POOR FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST SEEMS VERY LIKELY, BUT DETAILS WOULD DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TRACK AS ITS INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN COULD AID IN THE
ENHANCEMENT OR DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.
RUX
AVIATION
PANC...THE TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CEILINGS GREATER THAN 5000
FT AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 06Z, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS/VIS
REMAIN VFR, THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW. THEN, A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION MAY LEAD TO A TAPERING OR END
TO SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR. THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS A CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY. HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ARE NOW SLATED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
QUESADA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page