082
FXAK68 PAFC 260401
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
701 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
- CONFIDENCE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE MAT-SU
VALLEYS, ANCHORAGE AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
A SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE SNOWY, ACTIVE PATTERN IS JUST STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTENT
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING US IN A MORE QUIET AND
SEASONABLY WARM PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW BEING
ERODED FROM TWO SIDES, BOTH BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
SOUTHWEST AND BY AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OUT WEST
HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED INTO THE DECAYING RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
TODAY, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO PLACE AS IT LIFTS
NORTH. THUS FAR, MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING AS SNOW
REACHING GROUND LEVEL DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER,
THAT MAY CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD REMAINS QUITE
CHALLENGING AND CONTINGENT ON A COMPLEX PATTERN THAT MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO NAIL DOWN. EVEN FOR TONIGHT, THERE ARE STILL SOME
QUESTIONS REGARDING WHERE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS AND AT WHAT INTENSITY.
A ZONE OF WEAK LIFT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION SHOULD PICK UP AS COOL AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COPPER BASIN NEAR THE ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO
THE INTERIOR. AN AREA OF STEADY, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
INITIALLY ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND,
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE MAT VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. SNOW WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH INTO THE COPPER
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PULLS MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SNOW POTENTIAL
ALONG AN AXIS FROM STERLING TO PALMER FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. AMOUNTS COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR
LESS TO SEVERAL INCHES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR, DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL COMPLEXITY FURTHER AS
A DEEP POLAR LOW DRIVES SOUTHWEST FROM THE YUKON AND HEADS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BERING SEA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS POLAR LOW PROGRESSES, IT WILL GRADUALLY ABSORB
THE LEADING ARCTIC TROUGH STRETCHING OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. AT THE SAME TIME, A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WEAK LOW WILL DRIVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF, SENDING ANOTHER WAVE
OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR UP INTO THE REGION AND INTO THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW BRUSHING PAST US TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR CONTINUED STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GREATER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER BASIN REGIONS,
EXTENDING A LONG DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COPPER BASIN, WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS
IS MUCH LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND UP INTO THE
MAT-SU VALLEYS FOR THE SECOND ROUND ON TUESDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR WHERE HEAVIER BANDING SETS UP
PROVING STUBBORN. ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR, AMOUNTS FOR THE SECOND
ROUND COULD RANGE FROM JUST ANOTHER QUICK INCH OR SO TO 6 INCHES
OR MORE, DEPENDING ON JUST EXACTLY HOW THE FEATURES OUTLINED ABOVE
INTERACT.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE POLAR LOW
EXITS TO THE WEST, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. A NEW LOW IS LIKELY TO MOVE UP
INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO INCREASED WINDS AND
WAVES ACROSS OPEN GULF WATERS.
-AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGE: A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 3AM
TUESDAY TO 9AM THURSDAY FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 40
BELOW.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY, WHAT IS LEFT OF LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
EXITING THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION AS ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
SPINNING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH ITS OCCLUDED FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAIN, YIELDING AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN, LOWER CEILINGS, AND ELEVATED WINDS FOR SAND POINT,
DUTCH HARBOR, AND COLD BAY.
BY MONDAY MORNING, A POSITIVELY TILTED ARCTIC 500 MB TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA, PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE
INTERIOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AS DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 40 BELOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH, EXPECT A
WIDE SWATH OF SMALL CRAFTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA AND SUSTAINED GALES NORTH AND WEST OF
SAINT PAUL STARTING TUESDAY MORNING, MEANING EXTREME FREEZING
SPRAY CONCERNS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ICE EDGE. EXPECT DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILLS TO CONTINUE FOR ADVISORY LOCATIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
-AM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR BOTH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A MESSY PATTERN. MANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ALASKA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH WILL
BRING A MIX OF WEATHER FROM SNOW, RAIN, AND WINDS.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL STREAM INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GULF COAST IS LIKELY TO SEE
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INLAND. DUE TO A
WARMER AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS THE
LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THESE WAVES. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAKES IT FURTHER INLAND WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. DUE TO THE "MESSY"
NATURE OF THIS PATTERN, DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE
LIKELY AS SMALL FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. COLD AIR FROM THE LARGE
ARCTIC TROUGH WILL LINGER ON FOR THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE BERING AND MORE CONSTANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR THE UNALASKA REGION, SO BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER
THIS POINT, ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT IN TO START TRANSITIONING
SNOW TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL HAVE
PERIODS OF SNOW, RAIN, AND ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO THE MANY SMALL
FEATURES MOVING IN THROUGH SUNDAY.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...THE TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME,
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER 06Z, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW BECOMES STEADIER. THEN, A SUBTLE SHIFT IN
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION MAY LEAD TO A TAPERING OR END TO
SNOWFALL BEGINNING MID-MORNING MONDAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR. A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE NOW SLATED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
-TM/QUESADA
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