647
FXAK68 PAFC 261441
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
541 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
KEY MESSAGES:
1) POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH TO
THE MAT-SU VALLEYS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK; HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
OVERNIGHT, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED WAVES OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE MAT VALLEY CROSSING
THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED AND AK511 WEB CAMERAS
SHOWED FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE
DURING THIS TIME. THIS CAUSED VISIBILITIES TO RANGE FROM OVER 6
MILES TO 1 MILE QUICKLY AND FREQUENTLY OVER A SHORT DISTANCE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION THROUGH
NOON TODAY FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTS.
A POLAR LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE BERING
STRAIT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ARCTIC TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE BERING SEA TO KODIAK ISLAND PUSHING NORTHWARD
TODAY. THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION ALLOWS FOR A COMPACT LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO MOVE TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM THE
COPPER BASIN THEN WESTWARD TO THE MAT-SU VALLEY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES
FOR THESE INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE COPPER BASIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER IN THOMPSON PASS
RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA DEEPENS AND DIGS
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SHIFT ALLOWS FOR A SECOND GULF OF
ALASKA LOW TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA/KODIAK ISLAND. A TRACK OF
THIS PATH WOULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. CURRENT ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE REMNANTS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT
GETS SHUNTED NORTHWARD TODAY, RETREATING INTO NORTHEAST RUSSIA.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
DROPPING ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND INTO THE BERING ON
TUESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CLIP THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 40 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE COMMUNITIES SURROUNDING BETHEL, FROM NAPAKIAK AND
NAPASKIAK, TO KWETHLUK UP INTO TULUKSAK, AND THEN TO ANIAK AND
SLEETMUTE, WILL ALL BE AT RISK FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY MORNING, AS
THE PASSING ARCTIC LOW BRINGS GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BOTH THE INTERIOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUT OVER THE BERING SEA WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE FORECAST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEAS WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND OF 10
TO 12 FT WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 FT OVER THE WESTERN
BERING. A THREAT OF EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ICE EDGE FROM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. DECREASING WINDS
LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE THE THREAT OF EXTREME FREEZING
SPRAY SUBSIDE.
-BL
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR BOTH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A MESSY PATTERN. MANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ALASKA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH WILL
BRING A MIX OF WEATHER FROM SNOW, RAIN, AND WINDS.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL STREAM INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GULF COAST IS LIKELY TO SEE
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INLAND. DUE TO A
WARMER AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS THE
LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THESE WAVES. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAKES IT FURTHER INLAND WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. DUE TO THE "MESSY"
NATURE OF THIS PATTERN, DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE
LIKELY AS SMALL FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. COLD AIR FROM THE LARGE
ARCTIC TROUGH WILL LINGER ON FOR THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE BERING AND MORE CONSTANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR THE UNALASKA REGION, SO BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER
THIS POINT, ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT IN TO START TRANSITIONING
SNOW TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL HAVE
PERIODS OF SNOW, RAIN, AND ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO THE MANY SMALL
FEATURES MOVING IN THROUGH SUNDAY.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...LIGHT SNOW AT THE TERMINAL IS REDUCING VSBY/CIGS TO IFR
THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL CAUSE SNOW INTENSITY TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING, POTENTIALLY CAUSING THE SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OR CHANGE OVER TO INTERMITTENT FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN THE EVENT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH AS THE LOWER RATE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY REMAIN AS LOW AS IFR, BUT ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHTER/END OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW RETURNS
HEAVIER ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LARGE RANGE OF TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT SNOW TO
BEGIN/REINTENSIFY ON TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME HEAVIER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR.
QUESADA
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