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FXAK68 PAFC 271432
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF SNOW
EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KENAI NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND UP THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY SLOWLY PIVOTING WESTWARD. THIS
BAND PRODUCED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING REINVIGORATED LATER TODAY.
THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS THAT A TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WITH THE PARENT ARCTIC LOW PROGGED TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTH SLOPE TOWARDS THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THEN INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ON THE GULF SIDE, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF. IT WILL BE THIS SYSTEM LIFTING UP
TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FIRST TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THEN SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN KENAI, ANCHORAGE BOWL, AND MAT-SU VALLEY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. IT IS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR A PERIOD OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE SYSTEM STARTS TO WIND DOWN. FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS
REMAIN ON TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT COULD BE TWEAKED ONCE
THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET IN
TOTAL ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR VALDEZ AND THOMPSON PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 18 INCHES REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR THE COPPER BASIN. SNOW WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END FROM
EAST TO WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, A WARMER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL. A POTENT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF FROM EAST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY, SENDING A CORRIDOR OF GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN NEAR SEA LEVEL
ALONG THE GULF COAST. FARTHER INLAND, TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT GROUND LEVEL. WHILE LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
ANYTHING THAT DOES SPILL OVER INTO THE MAT VALLEY, ANCHORAGE OR
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET DUE
TO THE WARM INTRUSION ALOFT. BY THURSDAY, A GALE FORCE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF, EXTENDING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST.
- PP/AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY FILTERING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FROM THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING, AS A BROADER TROUGH SLIDES FROM
EAST TO WEST INTO THE BERING SEA. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH, DEFINED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -20
TO -32 DEGREES CELSIUS, SPANS FROM THE NORTHERN YUKON, ACROSS THE
NORTHER HALF OF ALASKA, INTO THE EASTERN BERING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, WHERE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO COOL FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND, WIND CHILLS ALREADY RANGE FROM MINUS 20 TO MINUS 30 DEGREES
FROM BETHEL TO SLEETMUTE, AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 40
DEGREES ARE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. ON
SATELLITE, MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS CLEAR, A RESULT OF THE
COOL, BUT ALSO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TOMORROW, FROM THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOISTER AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL OTHERWISE BE UNIMPRESSIVE.
AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES SPILL OUT INTO THE
BERING SEA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE ICE EDGE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET.
OTHERWISE, A THREAT FOR EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY WILL PERSIST TODAY
AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER AND WARM ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY
THURSDAY, AS A GULF OF ALASKA LOW AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY.
BL
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR BOTH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE PATTERN. MANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ALASKA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH WILL
BRING A MIX OF WEATHER FROM SNOW, RAIN, AND WINDS.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL STREAM INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GULF COAST IS LIKELY TO
SEE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INLAND. DUE TO
A WARMER AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THESE WAVES. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MAKES IT FURTHER INLAND WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. A LARGER LOW
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY, LIKELY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
INTERACTING WITH WEAK FEATURES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWFALL IN THE
BERING AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE BERING AND MORE CONSTANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN ARISES ON MONDAY WITH THE
LARGE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA POTENTIALLY SENDING SHORTWAVES TO
WESTERN ALASKA AND ADVECTING WARMER AIR. THIS COULD CAUSE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY
MAY GIVE WAY TO A LULL WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THIS EVENT ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON. DURING THE LULL, CIGS/VSBY MAY LIFT TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR
FOR A SHORT TIME. THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS EVENING WILL DROP
CIGS/VSBY BACK TO IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW WILL END
RATHER ABRUPTLY AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO TURN VFR AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THESE CHANGES MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK, BRIEF TURNAGAIN ARM WIND THAT SHIFTS LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TO GUSTY VARIABLE/SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. IF THIS CHANGE
OCCURS, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z.
QUESADA
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