667
FXAK68 PAFC 280216
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
516 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST.
- AN WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE LOWS MOVING OVER
THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT SPILLS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEYS, ANCHORAGE AND KENAI PENINSULA.
A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS STEADILY PROGRESSING WEST
ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW NOW
APPROACHING THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW IS NOW MOSTLY AFFECTING THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
SUSITNA VALLEY, WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES A BIT
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE MAT VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE VICINITY.
SNOWFALL RATES IN AND AROUND ANCHORAGE HAVE LIGHTENED UP COMPARED
TO WHAT WE SAW EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO, NUMEROUS TRAVEL IMPACTS
ALONG PARTS OF THE SEWARD HIGHWAY, GLENN HIGHWAY AND ANCHORAGE
AREA ARE LINGERING DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OBSERVED
EARLIER ON IN THE DAY. SNOW SHOULD STEADILY END FROM EAST TO WEST
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE COOK INLET AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. ACROSS THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION, SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE
LOW/TROUGH PASSAGE HAVE USHERED A WARMER AIR MASS INTO PLACE,
TURNING SNOW OVER TO RAIN AT SEA LEVEL FOR SPOTS INCLUDING
WHITTIER AND CORDOVA. FARTHER NORTH, SNOW HAS FINALLY TAPERED OFF
ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN, AND IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY HERE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, A WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
LOOK ON TRACK AS A SERIES OF POTENT LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE GULF FROM
EAST TO WEST. A LOW OPENING UP TO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FIRST MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CORRIDOR
OF GALES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF AS IT ARCS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND WEAKENS BY THE AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING A LARGER CORRIDOR
OF HIGH-END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. THE CENTER WILL SLOWLY WOBBLES
INTO KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY.
FOR LAND AREAS TO THE NORTH, THIS PATTERN WILL ENTAIL AN
ONSLAUGHT OF COASTAL RAIN/SNOW AS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SENDS MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. THE STRONG EASTERLY AND CROSS-BARRIER FLOW DEVELOPING
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO
MAKE IT INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TO MORE INLAND AREAS. EVEN
SO, SOME SPILL OVER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AS A
NORTHWEST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST AROUND MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. A WARM NOSE OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AS WARMER AIR OVER THE GULF SPREADS NORTHWEST WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES. TEMPERATURES OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS,
HOWEVER, ARE UNLIKELY TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND THIS COOL SURFACE AIR COUPLED WITH THE WARM AIR
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA NORTH TO THE MAT VALLEY AND
ANCHORAGE AREAS. AGAIN, ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT PAST THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. STILL, ANY AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY SLICK CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
FOR ANY SHELTERED SPOTS ALONG THE SEWARD AND STERLING HIGHWAY
CORRIDORS THAT STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
-AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SNOW AND BLOWING WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM QUICKER ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ADVANCING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.
3) BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.
4) THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND INTO MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THESE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD WITH TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY
AND MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE -30S,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE -20S TO NEAR -30. ALTHOUGH
WIND CHILLS BRIEFLY HIT -40 THIS MORNING OVER ANIAK, THEY ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO BE THAT COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
AS STATED ABOVE. THEREFORE, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO BE CANCELED ACROSS THE INTERIOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. LIGHT BANDS OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SETS
UP BETWEEN THE BIG UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING AND A LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW COULD ENHANCE SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST. IN GENERAL, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE GULF LOW COULD
MOVE CLOSER TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) AND INTERIOR BRISTOL
BAY BRINGING MORE SNOW TO INTERIOR AREAS BY THEN.
FARTHER OUT WEST, THE COLD AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST IS ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA CURRENTLY. THIS COLD
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AT THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, BEFORE THE COLD
AIRMASS MAKES IT TO THE ALEUTIANS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS ST. PAUL AND ST. GEORGE ISLANDS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE TEENS AND EVENTUALLY TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS ONE-HALF MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH.
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE BROAD BERING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AKPEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION. THE BIGGEST
HAZARD TO WATCH FOR WILL BE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR BOTH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE PATTERN. MANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ALASKA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH WILL
BRING A MIX OF WEATHER FROM SNOW, RAIN, AND WINDS.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL STREAM INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GULF COAST IS LIKELY TO
SEE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INLAND. DUE TO
A WARMER AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THESE WAVES. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MAKES IT FURTHER INLAND WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. A LARGER LOW
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY, LIKELY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
INTERACTING WITH WEAK FEATURES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWFALL IN THE
BERING AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PATTERN ARISES ON MONDAY WITH THE LARGE LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA POTENTIALLY SENDING SHORTWAVES TO WESTERN ALASKA AND
ADVECTING WARMER AIR. THIS COULD CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY.
-JAR/KC
AVIATION
PANC...MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY TONIGHT. BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP CIGS/VSBY BACK TO IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. SNOW WILL END RATHER ABRUPTLY AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO TURN VFR AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW, PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHERLY, A SOUTHEASTERLY
TURNAGAIN ARM WIND MAY CLIP THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER THIS TIME.
LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN STARTING AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY.
-TM
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