704
FXAK68 PAFC 281422
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
522 AM AKST WED JAN 28 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK AS A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE GULF FROM EAST TO WEST. A LOW OPENING UP
TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
MORNING, BRINGING A CORRIDOR OF GALES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF AS IT ARCS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND WEAKENS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SPREADING A LARGER CORRIDOR OF HIGH-END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
THE CENTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE BARREN ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT COASTAL
RAIN AND UPPER ELEVATION SNOW AS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SENDS MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. THE STRONG EASTERLY AND CROSS-BARRIER FLOW DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO
MAKE IT INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TO MORE INLAND AREAS. EVEN
SO, SOME SPILL OVER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AS A
NORTHWEST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST AROUND MIDDAY AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. A WARM NOSE OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS WARMER AIR OVER THE GULF SPREADS
NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES. TEMPERATURES OVER
INLAND AREAS FROM COOK INLET INTO THE MAT VALLEY, INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE, WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
THURSDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
-AS/CJ
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
DISCUSSION:
AN ARCTIC TROUGH HAS PIVOTED ATOP THE YK DELTA THIS MORNING WITH
FRIGID UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES BLANKETING MUCH OF THE BERING.
MORNING IR SATELLITE REVEALS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD, THE
LEADING EDGE ROUGHLY 125 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF SAINT GEORGE.
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ATOP THE WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS EXPERIENCING SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LIKELY TO REMAIN IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
SHORTLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE DUE SOLELY TO FALLING SNOW.
THE ARCTIC TROUGH HAS LIKELY PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH AS IT IS GOING
TO GO. A NEW TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH SMALLER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE HELPING TO BOOT
THE ARCTIC TROUGH OUT OF THE REGION AND ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING SEA
IS WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S FOR THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY REGION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
IN THE SHORT TERM, BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, FIRST WITH ONGOING SNOW TODAY, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CAPES AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TOMORROW, AS A SEPARATE TROUGH RIDES NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY FRIDAY IT APPEARS
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND OVER SOUTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD SEE A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
BL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION. THE BIGGEST
HAZARD TO WATCH FOR WILL BE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR BOTH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE PATTERN. MANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ALASKA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH WILL
BRING A MIX OF WEATHER FROM SNOW, RAIN, AND WINDS.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL STREAM INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GULF COAST IS LIKELY TO
SEE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INLAND. DUE TO
A WARMER AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THESE WAVES. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MAKES IT FURTHER INLAND WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. A LARGER LOW
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY, LIKELY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
INTERACTING WITH WEAK FEATURES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWFALL IN THE
BERING AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PATTERN ARISES ON MONDAY WITH THE LARGE LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA POTENTIALLY SENDING SHORTWAVES TO WESTERN ALASKA AND
ADVECTING WARMER AIR. THIS COULD CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY.
-JAR/KC
AVIATION
PANC...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT DRIFTING ON THE RUNWAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE STRONG
EASTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP LLWS AWAY. THE STRONG EASTERLIES SHOULD ALSO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION FROM MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD THE
MOISTURE OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING, SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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