144
FXAK68 PAFC 290030
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE COUPLED WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE MAKING FOR A COMPLEX
FORECAST, HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY MUTED IMPACTS. A SERIES OF
TROUGHS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SWINGING UP INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LOW ELEVATION RAIN, AND UPPER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
COAST. CORE OF GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR STORM FORCE
THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MOSTLY OFFSHORE, DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH
BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE TONIGHT, HOWEVER EASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL
PROMOTE A DOWNSLOPE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL,
MITIGATING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTATION INLAND. A
STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING A LARGER CORRIDOR
OF HIGH-END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
AS SUCH, WITH BOTH SYSTEMS, INTERIOR AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRIER, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOSTLY LIKELY
TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
LOW. DURING THOSE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, SNOW WITH A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN THESE WINDOWS CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS STILL POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS FLUCTUATE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH. A WARM NOSE OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT AS WARMER AIR OVER THE GULF SPREADS NORTHWEST WITH
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES. TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS FROM
COOK INLET INTO THE MAT VALLEY, INCLUDING ANCHORAGE, WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY THURSDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
-CL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
A NEW TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH SMALLER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE HELPING TO BOOT
THE CURRENT ARCTIC TROUGH OUT OF THE REGION AND ACROSS THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME "WARMER" AIR,
PUSHING THE MORE FRIGID AIR MASS OFF TO THE NORTH, BRINGING THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA OUT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND BERING SEA DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20'S WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
IN THE LOW 30'S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN CAPES AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TOMORROW, AS A SEPARATE TROUGH RIDES
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT A GULF LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND OVER SOUTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD SEE A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE ALASKA
INTERIOR AND A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, SOUTHERN
ALASKA, AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. UNDER THIS PATTERN,
STORM SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TRACK
INTO THE GULF BEFORE ROTATING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING. EXPECT A NEW
STORM SYSTEM EACH DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS
ACROSS THE GULF, KODIAK ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL, BRINGING
ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGIONS. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MUCH DRIER
LARGELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS, THOUGH SOME OF THE SHORT-WAVES
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT INLAND. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION (RAIN, SNOW,
FREEZING RAIN) WHILE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WOULD LIKELY
SEE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW. THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
LATER, AS WE GAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AK
AND THE BERING SEA. STILL, EXPECT ROUNDS OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
TO CROSS THE REGION. BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION, WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW. WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS WILL BE QUIETER WITH WEAKER SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
-SEB
AVIATION
PANC...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY.
WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON UP TO 15 KT.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE TERMINAL DRY AS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED FROM MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOULD ANY MOISTURE OVERCOME DOWNSLOPING, BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED.
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