660
FXAK68 PAFC 291432
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA WITH ITS FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. NOW THAT COOLER AIR HAS WRAPPED BACK INTO THE LOW,
LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THAT, COUPLED WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE LOW, HAS BROUGHT FREEZING RAIN TO LEE-SIDE AREAS FROM
BIRCHWOOD SOUTH TO NINILCHIK DESPITE STRONG CROSS-BARRIER WINDS.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AREN'T MAKING IT FAR OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
LEADING TO THE HIGHEST LEE-SIDE FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
GREATER ANCHORAGE MUNI NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND ON THE WESTERN
KENAI FROM STERLING EAST TO COOPER LANDING.
MOVING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW WILL SWING BACK INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN TO THE KENAI MOUNTAINS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF MORE FREEZING RAIN FROM ANCHORAGE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
KENAI. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS, RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE MAT
VALLEY, INTO WEST ANCHORAGE AND SOUTH INTO THE COOK INLET. THIS
WILL HAVE SOME DRYING EFFECT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE MAT VALLEY, BUT
AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TO GET THE WINDS AND
THEREFORE MOST LIKELY TO GET MORE RAIN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED NEAR 40 FOR THE MAT VALLEY, AND WILL LIKELY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MAIN POPULATION CENTERS AROUND COOK INLET
THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, RAIN
FALLING ONTO FROZEN ROADWAYS AND COLD SURFACES ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INTERIOR AREAS, GENERALLY
OVERCAST SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN ALONG WITH THE
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. KODIAK AND THE EASTERN
KENAI ARE LIKELY TO GET CONTINUED RAIN WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL SET UP LEADING TO CALMER AND DRIER WEATHER, AS A BROAD
LOW MOVES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER ALASKA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS
MORNING AS A LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BRINGS AN EASTERLY WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE INTO SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FROM KING SALMON TO DILLINGHAM TO TOGIAK, BUT SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS INTO THE BERING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS MODERATED TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WITH BETHEL UP
TO NEGATIVE 4 DEGREES CURRENTLY. THE LOW OVER THE GULF THEN MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH RENEWED
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM ILIAMNA SOUTH AND INLAND BRISTOL BAY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF BRING MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
LARGELY AS ALL SNOW. FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE FORECAST.
BL
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE ALASKA
INTERIOR AND A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, SOUTHERN
ALASKA, AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. UNDER THIS PATTERN,
STORM SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TRACK
INTO THE GULF BEFORE ROTATING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING. EXPECT A NEW
STORM SYSTEM EACH DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS
ACROSS THE GULF, KODIAK ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL, BRINGING
ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGIONS. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MUCH DRIER
LARGELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS, THOUGH SOME OF THE SHORT-WAVES
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT INLAND. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION (RAIN, SNOW,
FREEZING RAIN) WHILE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WOULD LIKELY
SEE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW. THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
LATER, AS WE GAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AK
AND THE BERING SEA. STILL, EXPECT ROUNDS OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
TO CROSS THE REGION. BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION, WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW. WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS WILL BE QUIETER WITH WEAKER SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
-SEB
.AVIATION...
PANC...A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CHUGACH THIS MORNING
WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 15Z
BEFORE DRYING OUT A BIT. THE LOW BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND WILL MOVE NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL INDUCE SOME BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE CHUGACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR GIVEN THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
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