211
FXAK68 PAFC 300137
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
FOLLOWING THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL, THIS
AFTERNOON HAS SEEN A REPRIEVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING, ANCHORAGE AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
MOVING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW WILL SWING BACK INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN TO THE KENAI MOUNTAINS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF MORE FREEZING RAIN FROM ANCHORAGE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
KENAI. THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS, RESULTING
IN INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE MAT VALLEY, INTO WEST
ANCHORAGE AND SOUTH INTO THE COOK INLET. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OUT OF THE MAT VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO WORK TO ELEVATE THE
WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HAVE SOME DRYING
EFFECT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE MAT VALLEY, BUT AREAS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TO GET THE WINDS AND THEREFORE MOST
LIKELY TO GET MORE RAIN TONIGHT. DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING, RAIN FALLING ONTO FROZEN ROADWAYS AND COLD SURFACES ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INTERIOR
AREAS, GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN ALONG WITH THE
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. KODIAK AND THE EASTERN
KENAI ARE LIKELY TO GET CONTINUED RAIN AT SEA-LEVEL AND SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. BY SATURDAY MORNING, A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, LENDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY CORRIDOR FROM
KENAI TO COOPER LANDING, POTENTIALLY AS FAR AS TURNAGAIN PASS.
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND MOISTURE PERSISTING BEYOND THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DICTATE HOW IMPACTFUL THIS QUICK SHOT IS, HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS POTENTIAL SO STAY TUNED. BY
SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SET UP LEADING TO CALMER AND DRIER
WEATHER, AS A BROAD LOW MOVES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF.
-CJ/CL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING)...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA. AS FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING, PLACES LIKE
ILIAMNA AND IGIUGIG COULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW TURN TO MORE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WHILE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE AHKLUN AND KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS, THANKS TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, SNOW WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND MAKE IT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR
SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT IN NATURE. EXPECT
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR SUNDAY, ALBEIT WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA.
FARTHER WEST, THE BIG UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHWEST IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED IN THE WESTERN BERING NORTH OF SHEMYA. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ADAK/ATKA, UNALASKA, AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
(AKPEN), SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE BERING CONTINUES. FLOW
SWITCHES TO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AKPEN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
A STRONGER GALE-FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW LIFTS ITS FRONT TO NEAR
ADAK AND ATKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THEN.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH CONTINUES TO
BE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TREND WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE ALASKA
INTERIOR AND A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, SOUTHERN
ALASKA, AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. UNDER THIS PATTERN,
STORM SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TRACK
INTO THE GULF BEFORE ROTATING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING. EXPECT A NEW
STORM SYSTEM EACH DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS
ACROSS THE GULF, KODIAK ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL, BRINGING
ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGIONS. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MUCH DRIER
LARGELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS, THOUGH SOME OF THE SHORT-WAVES
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT INLAND. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION (RAIN, SNOW,
FREEZING RAIN) WHILE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WOULD LIKELY
SEE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW. THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
LATER, AS WE GAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AK
AND THE BERING SEA. STILL, EXPECT ROUNDS OF WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION. BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION,
WHILE THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW. WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS WILL BE QUIETER WITH WEAKER SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER FLOW AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
-SEB/KC
.AVIATION...
PANC...A DEEP LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE BARREN ISLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
ANCHORAGE. EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR OUTCOME TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME RAIN SPREADING WEST
FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARD THE TERMINAL. MOST LIKELY THE
TERMINAL WILL ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL, THOUGH WITH A
STRONGER SHORT-WAVE IT COULD BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. THE BEST
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE 01Z TO 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, THOUGH CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 5000 FEET DURING
THE PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HIGHER CEILINGS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
SEB
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