978
FXAK68 PAFC 241459
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
559 AM AKST TUE FEB 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THIS MORNINGS SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA THE PAST
WEEK IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SERIES OF
TROUGHS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH INTERIOR ALASKA. THE FLOW HAS
BEEN MORE ZONAL THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. SNOW HAS BEEN BEEN ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COPPER BASIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
ALSO WORKED THROUGH THE MAT VALLEY AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL HAS
BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THIS BAND, THOUGH NORTHEAST ANCHORAGE
AND/OR THE HILLSIDE MAY HAVE SEEN SOME FLURRIES OR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW WORKS THROUGH
ANCHORAGE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE LEADING ARCTIC FRONT AND THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER BASIN WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD
LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, VERY COLD DENSE AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING, AND CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS THE
GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE RAMPING OF GAP WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD DENSE
AIR MOVES OVER AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS
OF STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY IMPACTS (INCLUDING POWER OUTAGES,
BLOWING SNOW, AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS). FOR THE LARGER GULF
COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS, EXPECT STRONG GAP WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY, AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HURRICANE
FORCE WIND AND EXTREME RATES OF FREEZING SPRAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE CORRIDOR FROM KAMISHAK BAY TO THE BARREN
ISLANDS. LASTLY, A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES CROSSING COOK INLET AND THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LOOKS TO
SET-UP OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET DOWN TO SELDOVIA (AND OTHER NEARBY
COMMUNITIES) AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED, AS IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SET UP.
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF,
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL PEAK MOST
PLACES SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COASTAL
GAP WINDS WILL LINGER ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO SOUTHCENTRAL UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES, AND SUBSEQUENT WIND CHILLS, LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND 20S WITH
SOME LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE NEGATIVE 30S IN THE COPPER BASIN.
THE COAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIGID
WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS LINGER. THE COPPER
BASIN, UPPER MATANUSKA VALLEY, AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY COULD SEE
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 40 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. SOME COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS
SEWARD AND WHITTIER MAY ALSO SEE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. AS SUCH, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- PP/SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG ARE
LINGERING IN BRISTOL BAY, ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER WAVE IS STRETCHING OVER THE
BERING FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXTEND OVER
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AN ARCTIC TROUGH IS BARRELING SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. THIS IS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY
DECLINE ACROSS THE STATE. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BRISTOL BAY EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE DROPPING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVES THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH THE INNER KUSKOKWIM DELTA, LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, AND
INLAND AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 20 BELOW ZERO
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BERING IS A DIFFERENT STORY. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISSIPATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A PERIOD OF CALMER WINDS AND LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TOP OF A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDS
OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DUE TO A WARMER AIR MASS
FROM THE LOW. WINDS WILL BE HIGH END GALE FORCE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE STRENGTH WEST OF ADAK. THESE CONDITIONS
IN THE BERING WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW STALLS OUT.
-JAR
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ONLY MINOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND A PASSING ARCTIC
TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PARTS OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SEEING TEMPERATURES
AS LOW AS 20 BELOW. BECAUSE WE'RE MOVING INTO THE LATER WINTER
MONTHS, THE INCREASING DIURNAL CYCLE WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN
MINIMIZING COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, THOUGH PARTS
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN COULD STILL FLIRT WITH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITHIN ANY CLEARING.
GUSTY WINDS AND GUSTY GAP WINDS SHOULD BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE THURSDAY.
BEYOND THURSDAY, WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN FROM THE ALCAN BORDER
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WINDS WILL BE MILDER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL.
ALL OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL FLIP TO THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH AND SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
OVERSPREAD THE CHAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE GUSTIEST WINDS RESIDING OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHAT REMAINS OF
A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SPILL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA INTO THE BERING BEFORE TEMPERATURE MODERATE AND WARM LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
BL/DD
AVIATION
PANC...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
WILL CLEAR TO THE SOUTH BY AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING AND ALLOW A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS LOW
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY AND STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page