979
FXAK68 PAFC 250157
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
457 PM AKST TUE FEB 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION: FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
ARRIVAL OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS
BEEN WELL ADVERTISED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO OR BELOW
ZERO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA,
AS WELL AS THE SOUND AND COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN PLUMMET AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 20 TO 50
BELOW ZERO.
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE COLD, DENSE AIR MASS FILTERS SOUTHWARD
BENEATH THE PASSING ARCTIC TROUGH, AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING GAP WINDS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOMPSON PASS AND SEWARD, WITH NORTHEAST
KODIAK ISLAND BEING UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER TODAY.
GUSTS FROM 65 MPH TO 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE GULF, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND EXTREME RATES OF
FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE CORRIDOR FROM KAMISHAK BAY
TO THE BARREN ISLANDS.
- BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
*A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAK AND ATKA
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR HIGH WINDS
AND WET SNOWFALL.
*A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 50 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION:
LOOKING AT 500 MB HEIGHTS AND VORTICITY THIS AFTERNOON, THE WELL
ADVERTISED ARCTIC TROUGH IS BARRELING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA TO THE YUKON-KUKSOKWIM DELTA. THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE
ARCTIC AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS KIPNUK, BETHEL, AND PARTS OF
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW
ZERO. TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, A VERTICALLY STACKED NORTH
PACIFIC LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING AS THE LOW IMPEDES UPON A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA OUT AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA, OCEAN
EFFECT/CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM AN NORTHERLY
WIND MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FAVORED BAYS AND PASSES AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE SHORT TERM, AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AS THIS BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO TO 30 BELOW ZERO NEAR LIME VILLAGE. THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST OF TWO NIGHTS OF WIND CHILLS REACHING 40 BELOW ZERO
OR LOWER ANYWHERE FROM ANIAK EASTWARD TO CROOKED CREEK AND LIME
VILLAGE. EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE COLDER WIND
CHILLS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, INCLUDING ADAK AND ATKA. WITH ISOBARS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CLUSTERED TOGETHER FROM HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO PICK UP IN
INTENSITY. PRECIPITATION RAMPS UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WET
SNOWFALL INTENSITY RATES INCREASING, BUT PROBABLY STRUGGLING TO
ACCUMULATE DUE TO TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 30S. ATKA
LOOKS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER THAN ADAK, SO EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION FOR ATKA, WHERE AS IN ADAK - RAIN IS MORE
PROBABLE TO MIX IN AT TIMES AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. CONCERNING
WIND, A WIDE SWATH OF GALES UP TO SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BE FELT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH NOON FRIDAY, PEAKING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 TO 65 MPH. THE
FRONT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, SO EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE, BUT STILL GUST IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
-AM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
A GENERAL PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN FAVORS COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE INTERIOR
PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AT TIMES, WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAINTAINS GUSTY WINDS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW
RAPIDLY WEAKENS.
STARTING MONDAY, SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CONSTANT
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND START A SLOW WARMING TREND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH THESE WAVES STAYING OVER
OPEN WATER, THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
ALEUTIANS, KODIAK ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL. MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AND STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
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