424
FXAK68 PAFC 251452
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
552 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN ARCTIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
ABOUT ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THEN CONTINUES TO DRIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF LATER TODAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN, PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION, WHO MAY SEE
POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA FROM SELDOVIA TO NANWALEK WILL SEE PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, PRODUCTIONS AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
MULTIPLE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, INCLUDING:
** HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SEWARD UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST KODIAK ISLAND INCLUDING KODIAK CITY, AND THOMPSON PASS
UNTIL 9AM AKST THURSDAY.
** HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR VALDEZ UNTIL 9PM AKST THIS EVENING.
** COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, UPPER
MATANUSKA VALLEY, NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY, WEST PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND WHITTIER, AND SEWARD UNTIL 6PM AKST THURSDAY.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
KEY MESSAGES:
*A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAK AND ATKA
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR HIGH WINDS
AND WET SNOWFALL.
*A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
THURSDAY FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 50 BELOW ZERO.
THE ARCTIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE, WITH
A DRY AND COLD AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING IT. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO THE NEGATIVES, WITH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY REACHING THE NEGATIVE
TEENS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVALENT OVER THE MAINLAND AS WELL
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS REMAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE NEGATIVE 20S FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM REGIONS AND THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR BRISTOL BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BREACH THE
NEGATIVE 40S IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND MAYBE EVEN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE BERING IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. SATELLITE REVEALS A
LARGE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE BERING DUE TO
INSTABILITY CREATED FROM THE VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
WARMER WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD FROM NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE TOP OF A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS
RISING UP INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, GUSTY GALE FORCE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND MAY
REACH STORM FORCE STRENGTH WEST OF ADAK BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD, SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL,
DELIVERING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW TO UNALASKA BY FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE BERING, NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY REMAINS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION.
-JAR
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
A GENERAL PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN FAVORS COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE INTERIOR
PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AT TIMES, WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAINTAINS GUSTY WINDS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW
RAPIDLY WEAKENS.
STARTING MONDAY, SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CONSTANT
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND START A SLOW WARMING TREND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH THESE WAVES STAYING OVER
OPEN WATER, THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
ALEUTIANS, KODIAK ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL. MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE BEFORE A RETURN
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL RE- INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 18Z
THIS MORNING AND 6Z TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STRONGER WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
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