813
FXAK68 PAFC 260208
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
508 PM AKST WED FEB 25 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
MULTIPLE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, INCLUDING:
** BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COPPER VALLEY, FROM ALONG THE
RICHARDSON HIGHWAY, NORTH TO PAXSON AND THROUGH ISABEL PASS.
** HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SEWARD UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST KODIAK ISLAND INCLUDING KODIAK CITY, AND THOMPSON PASS
UNTIL 9AM AKST THURSDAY.
** HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR VALDEZ UNTIL 9PM AKST THIS EVENING.
** COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, UPPER
MATANUSKA VALLEY, NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY, WEST PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND WHITTIER, AND SEWARD UNTIL 6PM AKST THURSDAY. ANCHORAGE
HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON
THURSDAY AKST FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES.
AN ARCTIC TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING, WITH A 980 MB SURFACE LOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE BERING WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A VERY COLD AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO
THE REGION. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AT THE START OF THE DAY, COLDER FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND WARMER FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN BEING WELL BELOW ZERO. AS NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY
DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHCENTRAL, FURTHER CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER
AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL LEAD TO EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. NUMEROUS COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL, WITH WIND CHILLS TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 50 BELOW ZERO,
WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING THROUGH SEWARD AND INTO RESURRECTION BAY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A RECENT PEAK WIND GUST SO FAR OF 68
MPH. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND
THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. GULL ISLAND IN KODIAK REPORTED A 78 MPH
WIND GUST WHILE THE MATSON CRANE OBSERVED A 75 MPH WIND GUST.
THE OBSERVATION SITE AT MP2 ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS HAS REPORT NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 71 MPH THUS FAR. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR THOMPSON PASS AND KODIAK ISLAND REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9AM THURSDAY WHILE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SEWARD ENDS
AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR VALDEZ
THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING, WHERE GUSTS HAVE RANGED RANGED FROM 45
TO 55 MPH.
A MORE RECENT ADDITION TO THE LIST OF ACTIVE SOUTHCENTRAL WEATHER
PRODUCTS IS A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COPPER BASIN. THE
ALASKA 511 HAS CLOSED THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
PAXSON, THROUGH ISABEL PASS TO MILE MARKER 218. DOT REPORTS
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW. THESE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALONG THE
RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM MILE MARKER 148 TO PAXSON TO ISABEL PASS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW GUSTY GAP WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT, THOUGH
COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKENDED.
CALMER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WHERE
ANY WINDS RELAX. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A FRONT LIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF SATURDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING MODELS
WANT TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE GULF COAST. A
PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM, HOWEVER, COULD BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS TO KODIAK ISLAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH MODERATE
TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY
DIGGING FROM MAINLAND ALASKA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW HAS ALLOWED VERY COLD AIR
TO FILTER IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, ALONG WITH STIFF WINDS THAT
HAVE RESULTED IN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -50 FOR MUCH SOUTHWEST
AK. SWAK WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO THE NEGATIVE 20S FOR THE KUSKOKWIM REGIONS AND THE NEGATIVE TEENS
FOR BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
WILL BREACH THE NEGATIVE 40S IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TOWARDS
LAKE ILIAMNA AND MAYBE EVEN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AGAIN TONIGHT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A NORTH PACIFIC LOW, THE LOW
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA, AND HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
NORTHWEST BERING HAVE RESULTED IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT LIES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
STORM-FORCE WINDS WITH AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ADAK AND ATKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ADAK SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN, WITH SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES. ATKA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
HINGE ON THE DEGREE BELOW FREEZING THEY END UP GETTING. SHOULD ATKA
REMAIN BELOW 32, UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF A WET SNOW WITH TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING SHOULD
KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATION SOMEWHAT LOWER. THE STRONG STORM-FORCE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SNOW 'FALLING SIDEWAYS' AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES, WITH MOMENTS OF WHITE-OUT
POSSIBLE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE PACIFIC LOW WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTH INTO NIKOLSKI AND DUTCH HARBOR
/ UNALASKA BY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE, ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL IMPACT THE
COMMUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...
A GENERAL PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND DIGS SOUTHWARDS OVER
THE BERING, ALEUTIANS AND NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INCREASE AS THE LOW
PASSES. WHILE THE BERING LOW MOVES SOUTHWARDS, A SECONDARY LOW
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT
AND BREAKS UP THE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE
COAST, THOUGH AT THIS TIME CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW AS MODELS KEEP
THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. STARTING MONDAY, MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITIONING OF THE FIRST LOW RELATIVE TO THE ALEUTIANS.
MODELS AGREE ON SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC STARTING TUESDAY. GIVEN VARIANCE ON THE POSITION
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND KODIAK ISLAND ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS
TIME. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS GENERAL
TROUGHING CONTINUES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN COLD
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
NIGHTTIME WIND CHILLS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP TO HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
STARTING MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ONGOING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z LATER TONIGHT.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, BUT
REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
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