569
FXAK68 PAFC 261421
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IS NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
KEEP THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES AROUND. WHAT IS CHANGING IS THE
WIND WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO IMPROVE AND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT ARE IN EFFECT DUE TO THE LOW WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE LATER TODAY. AREAS WITH
FAVORABLE TERRAIN FOR GAP WINDS, SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME WINDS, BUT EVEN THOSE GAP WINDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING TODAY. AFTER THAT, IT WILL JUST REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD FOR MANY DAYS TO COME.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND NEGATIVE 20S ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS. WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE
NEGATIVE 40S FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, AND
THE ILIAMNA REGION. DUE TO THESE VERY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THOUGH THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL DECREASE
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO RISE ABOVE NEGATIVE 40. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR IN THE MAINLAND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DUE TO THE
DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS.
WEATHER IN THE BERING IS QUITE DIFFERENT DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW, THE LOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA, AND HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTHWEST BERING HAVE RESULTED IN A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT LIES
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. STORM-FORCE WINDS WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ADAK AND ATKA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL HINGE ON THE DEGREE BELOW
FREEZING THEY END UP GETTING. SHOULD ATKA REMAIN BELOW 32, UPWARDS
OF 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A WET
SNOW WITH TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATION SOMEWHAT LOWER. THE STRONG STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW 'FALLING SIDEWAYS' AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES, WITH MOMENTS OF WHITE-OUT
POSSIBLE. NORTH OF THIS ZONE OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION IS A
CONTINUOUS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BERING DUE TO INSTABILITY
FROM COLD AIR MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS. THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED
BY THESE SNOW SHOWERS INCLUDE THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD OVERTIME, FOLLOWING THE SEA ICE GROWTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE PACIFIC LOW WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTH INTO NIKOLSKI AND DUTCH HARBOR
/UNALASKA BY TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL IMPACT THE COMMUNITIES
THROUGHOUT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL
ALLOW ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOWFALL CHANCES TO REMAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
-JAR/MJB
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...
A GENERAL PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND DIGS SOUTHWARDS OVER
THE BERING, ALEUTIANS AND NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INCREASE AS THE LOW
PASSES. WHILE THE BERING LOW MOVES SOUTHWARDS, A SECONDARY LOW
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT
AND BREAKS UP THE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE
COAST, THOUGH AT THIS TIME CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW AS MODELS KEEP
THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. STARTING MONDAY, MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITIONING OF THE FIRST LOW RELATIVE TO THE ALEUTIANS.
MODELS AGREE ON SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC STARTING TUESDAY. GIVEN VARIANCE ON THE POSITION
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND KODIAK ISLAND ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS
TIME. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS GENERAL
TROUGHING CONTINUES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN COLD
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
NIGHTTIME WIND CHILLS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP TO HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
STARTING MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
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