087
FXAK68 PAFC 270106
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
406 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE, GUSTY GAP WINDS WITHIN A COLD AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THOMPSON PASS REFUSES TO CALM DOWN AND
RECENTLY GUSTED TO 76 MPH. WINDS INTO THE VALDEZ AIRPORT REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WHILE IN TOWN WINDS ARE MORE
VARIABLE WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. THROUGH SEWARD
INTO RESURRECTION BAY WINDS ARE GUSTING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. ALL
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE COME TO AN END BUT THOMPSON
PASS IN PARTICULAR WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING. ONE OF THE BIGGER
CHALLENGES WITH THE WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN PALMER AND THE MAT-
VALLEY. YESTERDAY A MAT-VALLEY WIND DID DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A LONE GUST OR TWO AS HIGH AS 60 MPH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS PROMPTLY SHUTOFF DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING AND ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 35
MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. MORE SURPRISINGLY HAS BEEN THE VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION, WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE EAST, SOUTH, AND SOUTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF THE DIRECTION, OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TREND DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT
WITH MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER THAN
TODAY'S LOW. HOWEVER, A LACK OF STRONGER WINDS ON FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD PRECLUDE COLDER WIND CHILLS. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACES WHERE WINDS REMAIN
CALMER, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE ARE VARYING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
MODELS, THE GFS AND NAM IN PARTICULAR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
WINTER STORM UNFOLDING OVER KODIAK ISLAND LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK FAVORABLE WITH A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE TRACK
WOULD KEEP COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
DIRECTED INTO NORTHEASTERN KODIAK ISLAND WITH NORTH PACIFIC
MOISTURE SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST AS THE DETAILS ARE IRONED OUT. A WINTER STORM WATCH OR
BLIZZARD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING OR ON FRIDAY IF
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
-BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
VERY COLD WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
EXTENDING THROUGH TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, THE AK PENINSULA, AND
EVEN TO UNALASKA AND SOME OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BEFORE
MODERATING SOME AT ATKA, ADAK, AND FARTHER WEST. OVER THE PAST
DAY, THE KUSKOKWIM REGION EXPERIENCED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF
30 DEGREES BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH BRISTOL BAY AND THE AK PENINSULA REGION VALUES CLOSE TO
THAT AS WELL. AS A RESULT, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY FOR THE KUSKO GIVEN THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC REGIME DRIVING ALL THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING
AND FAR EASTERN RUSSIA, DRIVING COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THROUGH
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA.
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONE TOWARDS THE ANDREANOF ISLANDS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS OF GALE-FORCE INTENSITY, GUSTING TO STORM-FORCE,
CURRENT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF NIKOLSKI THROUGH ATKA, ADAK, AND
TO NEAR SHEMYA. COINCIDENT WITH THIS IS THE FRONTAL ZONE, AND
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATKA WHERE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
HOVER NEAR 32, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO FRIDAY, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH / WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH TOWARDS DUTCH
HARBOR, UNALASKA, AND NIKOLSKI, BRINGING SNOW TO THESE ISLANDS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH ACCUMULATION AS MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY, BUT A GENERAL RANGE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES STILL
SEEMS LIKELY DEPENDING ON LOCATION. GIVEN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW, AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS ALSO
LIKELY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN BERING / EASTERN RUSSIA
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO MAINLAND AK AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BERING SEA, REINFORCING BOTH THE COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE AIR DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS COLD AS THE CURRENT, BUT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR DAYS TO COME.
-BROWN
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AS THE WORK WEEK BEGINS, AN UPPER LOW FROM THE BERING WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHWARDS, A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE COAST,
THOUGH AT THIS TIME CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW AS MODELS KEEP THIS
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. STARTING TUESDAY, THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
POSITIONING RELATIVE TO THE ALEUTIANS, MAKING TO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALEUTIANS, THE AKPEN,
AND KODIAK ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE
CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AS TROUGHING CONTINUES
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, NIGHTTIME WIND
CHILLS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP TO HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
BL
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