948
FXAK68 PAFC 271351
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 20 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE MAIN
AREAS SEEING CONTINUES WINDS BEING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
AROUND THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION, INCLUDING THOMPSON PASS.
COPPER RIVER BASIN WINDS HAVE MOSTLY ABATED SINCE YESTERDAY.
THIS PATTERN IS HOLDING FIRM AND WILL KEEP CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR KODIAK ISLAND
LATE THIS WEEKEND LOOK LESS LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS
THE SNOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST MOST PART OF
THE ISLAND SEEING ANYTHING. THE GFS IS THE SOLUTION THAT WOULD
BRING IN THE MOST SNOW, BUT EVEN THAT WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND THEN PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, EVEN THE GFS MODEL IS NOT SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. THIS IS STILL
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
FRONT COULD TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND BRING IN MORE SNOW THAN
CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE PREVAILING PATTERN IN PLACE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE
BIGGEST STORY IN THE NEAR TERM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST, WHERE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO DIP DOWN INTO THE -10S TO -20S THIS MORNING. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA/VALLEY
DUE TO WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -45 PERSISTING. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO STREAM SOUTHWEST OFF OF THE ICE EDGE, GENERATING AREAS OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA
AS THE AIR PICKS UP WARMTH AND MOISTURE FROM OPEN WATER.
FARTHER SOUTH, A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO FOCUS AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ALONG MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. GUSTY EAST WINDS IN GALE FORCE RANGE ARE STILL
GOING STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BERING ALONG A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN A HIGH CENTERED OVER SIBERIA AND
A SLOW MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ANDREANOF AND
FOX ISLANDS DUE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, SNOW AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IN PLACE DOES NOT WAVER TOO MUCH
AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME AS THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN BERING RETROGRADES
WEST WHILE THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
RETREAT SOUTH. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NEARLY THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLING OVER THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES TO STREAM WEST INTO SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH TIME, ALLOWING A VERY SLOW REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES TO COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY POKE ABOVE THE ZERO MARK FOR SOME SPOTS BY SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL MORE LIKE -10 TO -30 FOR PLACES THAT
HOLD ON TO NORTHEAST WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING INTO
SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
ACCELERATE WEST ACROSS THE BERING ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WON'T
HAVE TOO MANY EFFECTS TO CONDITIONS AT GROUND LEVEL, BUT IT WILL
HELP GENERATE A RENEWED ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BERING AND THE RAT/NEAR ISLANDS AS IT SHIFTS WEST.
-AS
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AS THE WORK WEEK BEGINS, AN UPPER LOW FROM THE BERING WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHWARDS, A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE COAST,
THOUGH AT THIS TIME CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW AS MODELS KEEP THIS
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. STARTING TUESDAY, THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
POSITIONING RELATIVE TO THE ALEUTIANS, MAKING TO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALEUTIANS, THE AKPEN,
AND KODIAK ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE
CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AS TROUGHING CONTINUES
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, NIGHTTIME WIND
CHILLS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP TO HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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