305
FXAK68 PAFC 280118
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
418 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY)...
IT'S BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN,
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED FROM SOUTH OF GULKANA ALONG THE
RICHARDSON AND EDGERTON HIGHWAYS. YOU'D BE FORGIVEN IF YOU LOOKED
OUT THE WINDOW THIS MORNING, SAW THE SUN SHINING, AND THOUGHT,
"LOOKS LIKE A NICE WARM DAY TODAY!" NOPE. IT WAS FAIRLY COLD WITH
MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING 15 BELOW OR COLDER. CALM CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWED FOR AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO
EFFICIENTLY COOL DOWN TO BELOW ZERO FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE STRETCH OF THE STERLING HIGHWAY FROM SOLDOTNA DOWN TO
NINILCHIK SAW OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN TO 25 BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES
FROM THE VALLEY DOWN INTO ANCHORAGE RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WITH FORT RICHARDSON
BOTTOMING OUT AT 24 BELOW ZERO. ADDING TO THE CHILL WERE SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS THAT BROUGHT WIND CHILLS ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI
COAST DOWN TO AS COLD AS 40 BELOW ZERO EARLIER THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, AMBIENT TEMPERATURES IN PAXSON
COOLED TO 40 BELOW ZERO WHILE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ALONG THE GLENN
HIGHWAY HAD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. FINALLY,
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH
WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING BETWEEN 40 TO 50 BELOW ZERO.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY GAP
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY, BUT
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OUT OF THE INTERIOR WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR RESTRENGTHENING GAP WINDS ON SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RESURGENCE OF WINDS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS, VALDEZ, THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA, SEWARD, WHITTIER, AND THE MAT-VALLEY. OFFSHORE, A
BELT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS COOK
INLET INTO THE SHELIKOF STRAIT.
LASTLY, WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND
WINTER STORM ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND, BUT MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT TROUGH LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. ULTIMATELY, THIS MEANS WEAKER WINDS AND MUCH
LOWER FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO CLIP
NORTHEASTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THEN LINGER INTO
MONDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH ANY DIFFERENCE IN
THE TROUGH'S TRACK AND/OR INTENSITY, IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
KODIAK WILL SEE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SHIFTING OF WEATHER FEATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THE KEY MESSAGE IS COLD AND DRY OVER SOUTHWEST AK AND COLD
AND WINDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE BERING SEA, PRIBILOF
ISLANDS, AND ALEUTIANS. STARTING WITH THE WEATHER ANALYSIS, A
STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WHILE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT/NW AK
DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AK AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA,
REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MUCH OF SW AK SITTING
BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING IS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FROM SHEMYA TO ADAK TO
ATKA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WHERE WIND CHILLS DROPPED TO 40 BELOW ZERO OR LOWER THIS
MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS, BUT THEY WILL HEAD RIGHT BACK DOWN THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS MAKING UP TO ADAK AND
ATKA, BUT THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TO THE NORTH IS ALREADY
STARTING TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, VERY SLOWLY PUSHING IT TO THE SOUTH. LASTLY, AS
ARCTIC AIR STREAMS OFF THE ICE EDGE AND OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS OF THE BERING SEA, INSTABILITY IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS, SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREEZING
SPRAY.
THE ARCTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT,
PUSHING STEADY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM WITHIN THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD (AROUND THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW), CROSSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE PACIFIC
BY LATE SUNDAY. THE KEY WORD FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE PERSISTENCE,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAILING FOR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS, MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (GENERALLY WEST
OF UNALASKA). WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING ON
MONDAY. WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END, THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR SOUTHWEST AK, COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WEATHER FROM DAY
TO DAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IN THE PACIFIC WILL STAY
SOLIDLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, SO THE ALASKA PENINSULA DOWN TO
DUTCH HARBOR ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD AND DRY.
-SEB
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK WITH A
LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, A SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON TUESDAY
AND MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST, THOUGH AT THIS
TIME CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW AS MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL START MOVING EAST TUESDAY, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON SOME SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF MIDWEEK, BUT MODEL VARIANCE IS HIGH WITH
TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THESE WAVES. THIS MAKES PINPOINTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ALEUTIANS, THE AKPEN, KODIAK ISLAND,
AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THESE DETAILS
WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGHOUT THE REGION NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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