053
FXAK68 PAFC 281421
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE COLD AND CLEAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GUSTY GAP WINDS ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH NORTHERLY WIND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE NUMEROUS COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
THAT ARE OUT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. WHETHER AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES, OR WIND CHILL VALUES, THOSE IT IS OR FEELS LIKE 20
BELOW TO 30 BELOW FOR ANCHORAGE, THE MAT-SU AND MOST OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THOMPSON PASS THOSE
TEMPERATURE OR WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35 BELOW TO
50 BELOW THIS MORNING. BEING THAT WE ARE ALMOST TO MARCH,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE POINT THAT
THESE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE BY LATE
MORNING.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OUT OF THE INTERIOR
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RESTRENGTHENING GAP WINDS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE,
EXPECT A RESURGENCE OF WINDS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS, VALDEZ, THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA, SEWARD, WHITTIER, AND THE MAT-VALLEY.
THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA REMAIN THE PLACE WITH THE BIGGEST FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS HAVE MAINLY SETTLED ON THE TRACK OF THE
WEAK LOW PROPAGATING ALONG A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE GULF WHICH WILL
KEEP THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK. EVEN WITH THIS SOUTHERLY TRACK, IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW OVER KODIAK FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT IS INTERESTING WITH THIS SET-UP IS THAT
THIS SNOW WILL MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF SOME MESO-LOWS THAT DRIFT
OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST. THESE LOWS ARE DEVELOPING AS
THE COLD, DENSE AIR MOVES THROUGH THE CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTH GULF COAST AND INDUCES SPIN AT THE
SURFACE DUE TO THE SHARP DIFFERENCE IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND
DENSITY. A SERIES OF THESE LOWS CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR. THESE LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO GET CAUGHT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THAT SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN MAKE IT TO KODIAK TOMORROW. THIS TYPE
OF A SNOW SETUP IS INHERENTLY HARD TO FORECAST SO GETTING EXACT
AMOUNTS FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST
ESTIMATES IS FOR AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR KODIAK. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE SMALL LOWS COULD LINGER IN PLACE AT
ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BRING IN LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD OCEAN-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
STORIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO DIVE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, THIS DISTURBANCE IS
NOT REALLY CHANGING NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS MUCH, MAINLY JUST
REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS. COLD AIR STREAMING SOUTHWEST HAS
ALSO WON OUT OVER A FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE AKPEN AND ALEUTIAN
CHAIN, EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN COMPARED TO SOME EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING SEA AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS WEST OVER/NEAR SIBERIA. MOSTLY CLOSED-CELL CUMULUS COVERS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE PORTION OF THE BERING SEA NOT COVERED BY SEA
ICE, FUELED BY VERY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE MARINE LAYER AS
COLD AIR STREAMS OFF OF THE ICE EDGE AND ACROSS OPEN WATER. SOME
OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS, AFFECTING THE
PRIBILOF ISLAND AND THE NEAR, RAT AND ANDREANOF ISLANDS AT TIMES.
IN TERMS OF THE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE SAME CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS THE OVERARCHING PATTERN
REMAINS VERY STEADY-STATE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO WARM WITH TIME AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS MODIFIES THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT THE PROGRESS WILL BE EXCRUCIATINGLY SLOW. WIND CHILLS
DOWN IN THE -40S ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE -20S AFTER A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE TODAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR VALUES TO DROP BACK BELOW -40 AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
THUS, THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED OUT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN THE -20S TO -30S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COLD AS SOUTHWEST, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF MARCH.
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S ALONG WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PORTION OF THE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIVE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS SHEMYA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BERING, CAUSING A RENEWED ROUND OF
MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR JUST SHY OF GALE
FORCE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
-AS
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK WITH A
LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, A SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON TUESDAY
AND MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST, THOUGH AT THIS
TIME CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW AS MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL START MOVING EAST TUESDAY, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON SOME SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF MIDWEEK, BUT MODEL VARIANCE IS HIGH WITH
TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THESE WAVES. THIS MAKES PINPOINTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ALEUTIANS, THE AKPEN, KODIAK ISLAND,
AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THESE DETAILS
WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGHOUT THE REGION NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
PA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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