809
FXAK68 PAFC 010134
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3/TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL AND GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE FRIGID WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY. RIGHT AT
THE MOMENT, ARCTIC AIR ENVELOPS ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH A
STATIONARY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SITTING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AK COAST. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR AK
AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR WITH THIS TROUGH IS
NOT REALLY MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT IS IN PLACE, SO IF ANYTHING IT
WILL JUST REINFORCE AND PROLONG THE COLD TEMPERATURES. GAP WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES BY. GAP WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AS WELL DUE TO
PERSISTENT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE COLD SURFACE
HIGH OVER MAINLAND AK AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND PACIFIC
OCEAN. TEMPERATURES ARE FRIGID EVERYWHERE, WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS MOST PLACES.
MEANWHILE, A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND THE WESTERN GULF. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD BRINGING SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF.
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ARCTIC TROUGH,
WITH PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORT-
WAVES DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL JUST
BARELY PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING OF COASTAL GAP WINDS AND VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. WILL HOIST ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS ALONG
THE COAST AND AMBIENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. NONE OF THE OTHER SHORT-WAVES LOOK AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE, BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH OF GAP
WINDS AS THEY TRAVERSE SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(GENERALLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
KODIAK WILL BE THE ONE PLACE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BROUGHT THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY NORTH
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, BUT ALL MODELS N OW AGREE THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. KODIAK ISLAND WILL STILL GET SOME SNOW
OUT OF THIS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS, THIS WILL FAVOR KODIAK CITY AND THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE,
SO ACCUMULATION WILL VARY OVER SMALL DISTANCES AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. NONETHELESS,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATION FOR MOST AREAS ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE
INCHES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
ALL REMAINING PRECIPITATION ON KODIAK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
-SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN BERING SEA AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST
OVER/NEAR SIBERIA. MOSTLY CLOSED-CELL CUMULUS COVERS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE PORTION OF THE BERING SEA NOT COVERED BY SEA ICE, FUELED BY
VERY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE MARINE LAYER AS COLD AIR
STREAMS OFF OF THE ICE EDGE AND ACROSS OPEN WATER. SOME OF THIS
CLOUD COVER IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS, AFFECTING THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND THE NEAR, RAT, AND ANDREANOF ISLANDS AT TIMES.
IN TERMS OF THE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE SAME CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS THE OVERARCHING PATTERN
REMAINS VERY STEADY-STATE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO WARM WITH TIME AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS MODIFIES THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT THE PROGRESS WILL BE EXCRUCIATINGLY SLOW. WIND CHILLS
DOWN IN THE -40S ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE -20S AFTER A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE TODAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR VALUES TO DROP BACK BELOW -40 AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
THUS, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED OUT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN THE -20S TO -30S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COLD AS SOUTHWEST, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF MARCH.
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S ALONG WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PORTION OF THE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIVE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS SHEMYA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BERING, CAUSING A RENEWED ROUND OF
MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR JUST SHY OF GALE
FORCE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
-AS/AM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG-TERM WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS ENSEMBLES BRINGS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST RUSSIA AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING.
FURTHER EAST, A NORTH PACIFIC LOW LIFTS INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN ON
FRIDAY, WITH A TRIPLE-POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS WILL EXIST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE
TRIPLE-POINT LOW LIFTING INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA WOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHERE
SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BOTH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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