258
FXAK68 PAFC 011423
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH
3: TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ENVELOP ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA, INCLUDING
SOUTHCENTRAL, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR DAYS TO COME. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC
STRETCHES FROM THE ALCAN BORDER IN THE COPPER BASIN TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT DID
NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
WHILE THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
LESSEN SOME THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
THE WESTERN GULF. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD BRINGING SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WHICH IS SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF.
KODIAK STILL LOOKS TO BE THE ONE PLACE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK,
KODIAK ISLAND WILL STILL GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY CAN BE SEEN ON GOES SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND AND MOVING
IN THAT DIRECTION. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING
ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME, BUT THE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT AND SNOWFALL AS THEY REACH THE ISLAND. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR KODIAK CITY AND THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
ISLAND WITH PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
THEREFORE, ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY OVER SMALL DISTANCES AND COULD
BE BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. OVERALL,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATION FOR MOST AREAS ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE
INCHES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
ALL REMAINING PRECIPITATION ON KODIAK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
COLD CONTINUES TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA AS WE OPEN THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH TEMPERATURE CLOSE
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST. WIND CHILLS
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ARE ONCE AGAIN SINKING INTO THE -40S,
MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DON'T EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC
WARMING IN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER ANYTIME SOON. TO THE WEST, THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, NOW
DRIFTING WEST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN SAINT PAUL AND SHEMYA. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN NEAR THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE SEA SURFACE IS
ENHANCING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
BERING SEA AND ALONG THE WESTERN HALF TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE BERING SEA,
CAUSING AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ICE
EDGE, INCLUDING IN/AROUND SAINT PAUL.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE
START OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE OFF
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY LATE TONIGHT, LEADING TO AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ACROSS
OPEN WATER OVER THE BERING AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE WARM SLIGHTLY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY
DRIVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, REINFORCING
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN. MARGINAL, SLOW WARMING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, AT LEAST UNTIL THE NEXT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE ON TUESDAY, BUT NOT
BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. ACROSS THE BERING SEA, GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN A COMPLEX LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
STAY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ALONG MOST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
-AS
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG-TERM WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS ENSEMBLES BRINGS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST RUSSIA AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING.
FURTHER EAST, A NORTH PACIFIC LOW LIFTS INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN ON
FRIDAY, WITH A TRIPLE-POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS WILL EXIST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE
TRIPLE-POINT LOW LIFTING INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA WOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHERE
SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BOTH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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