756
FXAK68 PAFC 021421
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH
3/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN TONIGHT AS WELL AS PERSISTENT WINDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST MEANS THAT THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONE NOTABLE
CHANGE IS THAT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES IN THE COPPER BASIN TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TOK CUTOFF, POTENTIALLY TO 55 BELOW
ZERO.
WHILE PERSISTENCE HAS BEEN THE MAIN THEME THE PAST FEW DAYS,
THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANGES THAT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL (SPOILER ALERT) LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SHORT-WAVES DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE RESULT WILL BE A NEW
LOW CENTER THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF, LEADING TO A SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN TO CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY FOR THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGIONS. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS WITH HOW FAR WEST THESE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PROPAGATE. THE GFS MODEL IS THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION WITH MOST
OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN BEING IMPACTED. THE EC MODEL IS FARTHER EAST TO THE POINT
THAT EVEN CORDOVA WOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW. THE NAM SOLUTION
WAS CLOSE TO THE EC SOLUTION YESTERDAY, BUT IS TRENDING FARTHER
WESTWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
HOWEVER IT WORKS OUT, THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES, WITH A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY CONSISTENT AND RESILIENT PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST, WITH MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
COLD, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STILL DOMINATING THE BROADER PICTURE.
VERY COLD AND CLEAR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST,
WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -10S TO -30S ARE ONCE AGAIN COMMON.
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW MORNINGS, TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN
UNDERSHOOTING MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY ARE CAUSING WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, MOSTLY IN THE -30S. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE WORST OF THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD
TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE ENDING.
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS, OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO BECOME A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD AS COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFT OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. NORTHEAST WINDS IN SMALL
CRAFT RANGE CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALMOST THE ENTIRETY OF THE THE
BERING, SUPPORTED BY COLD ADVECTION OFF OF THE ICE EDGE ALONG
WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG SIBERIAN HIGH AND NORTH
PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S TO 20S
COMBINED WITH THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLIES ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CLOSE TO THE ICE EDGE, WHICH IS NOW COMING
VERY CLOSE TO REACHING SAINT PAUL.
THE KEYWORD FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE PERSISTENCE.
TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND EVER SO SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST, BUT THE SMALL REPRIEVE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, SENDING ANOTHER SURGE OF FRIGID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE -10S TO -20S ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL BUT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS, NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND HEADS EAST WHILE THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE.
-AS
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE STATE MID TO LATE THIS
WEEK WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF RESULTING SURFACE LOWS LIFTING INTO THE
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM. A LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLES
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH A SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHEAST RUSSIA AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
LIFTS INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING INCREASED SNOW
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD INLAND LOCATIONS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE GULF LOW WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE BARREN
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHERE SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION
ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BOTH
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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