041
FXAK68 PAFC 030032
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3/TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN ARCTIC TROUGH REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
AS A RESULT, IT'S BEEN ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD DAY ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN AK AND REPRESENTS ONE OF THE KEY FEATURES WILL
WILL LEAD TO A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE, PROGRESSIVE YET AMPLIFIED FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC. A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND, THOUGH THEY ARE GENERALLY A BIT WEAKER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE
STRENGTHENED WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS GAP
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL RESPOND TO INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ONE MORE DAY
DUE TO LOW WIND CHILLS ALONG THE COAST AND COLD AIR TEMPERATURES
IN THE COPPER BASIN. ONE OF THE BIG UNCERTAINTIES THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS HAS BEEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITTING OVER
SOUTHWEST AK RIGHT NOW. THE GFS HAD BEEN AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY. ALL
OF THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT
DIRECTION. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TO FORM
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM THE GULF
TOWARD CORDOVA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE BIG
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS.
HAVE PICKED A MIDDLE GROUND AMONG GUIDANCE AND INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MCCARTHY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, THERE COULD BE SNOW AS FAR WEST AS
CORDOVA AND GLENNALLEN. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHCENTRAL, THOUGH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO WARM THE AIRMASS A BIT. THUS, EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE OVER NORTHERN AK THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AK AND DEVELOP INTO
AN UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHWEST AK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IN THE
PACIFIC WILL THEN REORIENT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE GULF AND
HELP STEER STORM SYSTEMS QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF. THE FIRST LOW
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY
LARGE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LARGELY
REMAIN OUT OVER THE GULF OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT
ON LAND AREAS. SHORT-WAVES ROUNDING THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST AK WILL ROTATE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
AND TRACK OF SHORT-WAVES MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SNOW. BOTTOM LINE, A SHIFT IN PATTERN WILL
OCCUR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
-SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST, AS PERSISTENCE WILL
REMAIN. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE EXPIRATION OF THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES COVERING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND INSIDE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALL BEEN AT OR ABOVE THE -40 THRESHOLD. ACROSS
THE REGION, WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S.
TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE 30S, BUT ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED.
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
A VERY CONSISTENT AND RESILIENT PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST, WITH MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
COLD, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STILL DOMINATING THE BROADER PICTURE.
VERY COLD AND CLEAR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST,
WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -10S TO -30S ARE ONCE AGAIN COMMON.
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW MORNINGS, TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN
UNDERSHOOTING MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY (SUNDAY) ARE CAUSING WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, MOSTLY IN THE -30S.
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS, OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO BECOME A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD AS COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFT OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. NORTHEAST WINDS IN SMALL
CRAFT RANGE CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALMOST THE ENTIRETY OF THE THE
BERING, SUPPORTED BY COLD ADVECTION OFF OF THE ICE EDGE ALONG WITH
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG SIBERIAN HIGH AND NORTH PACIFIC
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S TO 20S
COMBINED WITH THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLIES ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CLOSE TO THE ICE EDGE, WHICH IS NOW COMING
VERY CLOSE TO REACHING SAINT PAUL.
THE KEY WORD FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE PERSISTENCE.
TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND EVER SO SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST, BUT THE SMALL REPRIEVE WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, SENDING ANOTHER SURGE OF FRIGID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE -10S TO -20S ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL BUT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS, NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND HEADS EAST WHILE THE STRONG RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST RUSSIA FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE.
-AS
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER THE STATE MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WILL EXTEND SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE TROUGH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND
TRACK OF RESULTING SURFACE LOWS LIFTING INTO THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM. A LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLES BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST
RUSSIA AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW LIFTS INTO
THE GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING INCREASED SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD INLAND LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE GULF LOW WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHERE SURFACE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT BOTH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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