740
FXAK68 PAFC 200028
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED NEAR SEWARD. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL HAS ALLOWED
FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ACROSS THE CHUGACH RANGE. STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES HAVE ALLOWED FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE VERY NOISY
WITH A MULTITUDE OF SURFACE LOWS REVOLVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA COAST. STRONG WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THOMPSON PASS AND POSSIBLY VALDEZ,
WITH A STRONG MATANUSKA WIND POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. PEAK WINDS
THROUGH WIND PRONE GAPS COULD BE AT LEAST 40 MPH. OTHERWISE, THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF THE SAME, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
SOME SUNSHINE, AND WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN GAPS AND
PASSES.
-CJ/RUC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
BERING AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC
LOW CONTINUES TO DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND, ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THE EAST BERING, AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM OF AREAS OF OPEN WATER. NORTHERLY GAP WINDS UP
TO GALE FORCE IN STRENGTH WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH GAPS AND
PASSES IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS IN MARINE AREAS WHEREVER WINDS ARE
GUSTY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY IS
LIKELY ALONG THE ICE EDGE AND OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES UNTIL FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND,
WINDS SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.
COLDER AIR REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE ARCTIC LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND POTENTIALLY THE NEGATIVE 20S
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR -40F IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN CAPES. AS SUCH, COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING FROM COLD BAY TO NIKOLSKI. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
FROM THIS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON LOCAL SNOWFALL
RATES AND WIND SPEEDS. MEANWHILE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SHEMYA
AREA BY FRIDAY AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.
-JAR/CL
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. RAIN/SNOW AND UP TO 40 MPH WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM SHEMYA
TO ATKA. A SECOND FRONT WILL BEGIN SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND, EASTERN BERING SEA, AND ALASKA
PENINSULA, EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PROBABLE NEAR AND OFF THE ICE EDGE IN THE
BERING,AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND NEAR COASTLINES. WINDS THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING SEA/BRISTOL BAY AND THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL SUSTAIN COLD, DRY,
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH ENHANCED GAP WINDS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.
TEMPERATURES MAY START TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
PANC...SNOW SHOWERS ARE WRAPPED AROUND A LOW THAT IS TRACKING FROM
EST TO WEST ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT
WILL BE FOR PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF GOOD VFR. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO MORE VRF THAN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW THAT TAKES A SIMILAR PATH AND BRINGS IN MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE LOWS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT, EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.
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