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FXAK68 PAFC 201308
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
508 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE POPULATION CENTERS AND MORE MODERATE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE SOUND HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
IS DISSIPATING. NOW, AND THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER WILL BE
DETERMINED BY A BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PINWHEEL A SERIES OF MESO-LOWS
COUNTERCLOCKWISE THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS CONGLOMERATE OF LOWS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL BE THE REINTRODUCTION OF GAP WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
VARIOUS GAPS AND PASSES (THOMPSON PASS, VALDEZ, THE MAT VALLEY,
SEWARD, BROAD PASS, ISABEL PASS AND MENTASTA LAKE). WINDS WILL
VARY THROUGH THESE GAPS OVER THE COMING DAYS AS MESO-LOWS MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. KODIAK ISLAND WILL
ALSO HAVE PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS, SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS
THESE LOWS MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND. BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD RELAX THE WINDS
OVERALL. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK JET AND
NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING SHORTWAVES MAY REINVIGORATE SOME OF THESE
WINDS NEXT WEEK.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
FOR NOW, THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS IT HAS THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN BERING AND TROUGHING OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC LOW HAS DROPPED THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THE
EAST BERING, AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM OF AREAS OF OPEN
WATER. NORTHERLY GAP WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE IN STRENGTH CONTINUE
TO BLOW THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS IN
MARINE AREAS WHEREVER WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS. EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY ALONG THE ICE EDGE AND
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND, WINDS SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE.
COLDER AIR REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE MAINLAND, AND THE NEGATIVE 20S FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ALLOWING FOR
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR -40F IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
WESTERN CAPES. AS SUCH, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE GUSTY WINDS BLOWING SNOW
IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST NEAR ETOLIN
STRAIT. AS SUCH, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING
FROM COLD BAY TO NIKOLSKI. THESE SHOWERS COINCIDING WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM THIS BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES AND WIND SPEEDS.
MEANWHILE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SHEMYA AREA BY FRIDAY AND REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE WEEKEND,
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
-CL
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. RAIN/SNOW AND UP TO 40 MPH WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM SHEMYA
TO ATKA. A SECOND FRONT WILL BEGIN SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND, EASTERN BERING SEA, AND ALASKA
PENINSULA, EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PROBABLE NEAR AND OFF THE ICE EDGE IN THE
BERING,AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND NEAR COASTLINES. WINDS THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING SEA/BRISTOL BAY AND THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL SUSTAIN COLD, DRY,
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH ENHANCED GAP WINDS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.
TEMPERATURES MAY START TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT SNOW. WHILE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE STILL LINGERING OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. AS SUCH, THE
TERMINAL COULD SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
BL
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