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FXAK68 PAFC 210019
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY A BROAD AND
COMPLEX LOW CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND. MULTIPLE MINI-LOW CENTERS
ALONG THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WAS POSITIONED FOR SNOW SHOWERS
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. PERIODS OF
LOWER VISIBILITY, DOWN TO ONE-HALF MILE, WAS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON IN KODIAK CITY AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER
TONIGHT, THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PINWHEEL A SERIES OF MESO-
LOWS COUNTERCLOCKWISE THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. KODIAK ISLAND WILL ALSO HAVE PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS,
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS THESE LOWS MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS CONGLOMERATE OF LOWS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL BE THE REINTRODUCTION OF GAP WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
VARIOUS GAPS AND PASSES (THOMPSON PASS, VALDEZ, THE MAT VALLEY,
SEWARD, BROAD PASS, ISABEL PASS AND MENTASTA LAKE). WINDS WILL
VARY THROUGH THESE GAPS OVER THE COMING DAYS AS MESO-LOWS MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST FOR HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THAT GAP HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING. HOWEVER,
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE PALMER AREA
AND APPROACH 50 TO 60 MPH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH LOW
PROBABILITY) FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD RELAX THE WINDS OVERALL.
HOWEVER, FOR THOSE IN THE VALLEY, KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND FORECAST
IN CASE THERE ARE UPDATES TO THIS EVENT. WE ARE MONITORING
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG, GUSTY WIND EVENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)...
THE COLD AIR, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING SNOW REGIME CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN), AND ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 45 BELOW
ZERO ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDEST
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH THE AKPEN
SEEING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -15 TO -30 AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SEEING WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -25. THEREFORE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN OUT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, PRIBILOF ISLANDS,
AND THE AKPEN (FROM FALSE PASS TO PORT HEIDEN, INCLUDING CHIGNIK
AND SAND POINT) UNTIL 12 PM AKDT TOMORROW/SATURDAY. BLOWING SNOW
ALSO CONTINUES ALONG THE AKPEN AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG NELSON ISLAND/TOKSOOK BAY
WHERE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TIMES. WINDS ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA LOOK TO FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH
WILL THEN DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT. HOWEVER, GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AKPEN, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN AKPEN, THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES SOMEWHAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FARTHER OUT WEST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUNDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-
TERM/MONDAY EVENING. WEST OF THIS HIGH IS WHERE WARMER AIR WILL
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH IS WHERE ALL THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO RESIDE. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO THE
WESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACCOMPANYING THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOSTLY BE
RAINFALL. GALE-FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MAINSTAY
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC MARINES ZONES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.
RAIN MAY CLIP ADAK ON MONDAY EVENING, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
IF THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST, RAIN CAN MAKE
IT INTO ADAK. CONVERSELY, IF THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS
PROGRESSION AND FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST, ADAK WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE DETAILS
ON PROGRESSION OF FEATURES ACROSS THE BERING BECOME MORE CLEAR.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ON TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE BERING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THE GULF
COAST COULD STILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS FROM TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. GUSTY GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE BERING
WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST
MONTH, NORTHERLY FLOW, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF
OF THE ICE EDGE OVER AREAS OF OPEN WATERS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE BERING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME GUIDANCE
WANTING TO DRIVE A FRONT EASTWARD, WHICH WOULD BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST BERING.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...A SMALL BUT TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI
PENINSULA FROM EAST TO WEST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONTO EARLY EVENING
AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. BY LATE EVENING,
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
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