603
FXAK68 PAFC 211233
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 AM AKDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A BROAD UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
STRONG AND COMPACT MESO-LOWS COUNTERCLOCKWISE THROUGH THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THESE WILL BE
FELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASED GAP WINDS THROUGH MOST
OF THE MOUNTAIN GAPS AND PASSES OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH SOME GAPS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED THROUGH THE MAT VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY, REACHING GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ONE OF THESE MESOS WILL GRAZE KODIAK
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO KODIAK CITY AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY, MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM(S) MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND PLACE A WEAK
NORTH TO SOUTH JET STREAM OVER THE STATE, ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MORE ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES,
INCLUDING THE MAT VALLEY AND VALDEZ IF THE FEATURES MOVE OVER
THESE AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
KODIAK TODAY, THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AND COLDER
THAN NORMAL.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)...
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN), AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST. THE PERIOD OF COLDEST WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTEDLY BEHIND US
AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR EXITS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD, HOWEVER JUST NOT TO THE DEGREE WE'VE SEEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BLOWING SNOW ALSO
CONTINUES ALONG THE AKPEN WITH SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AKPEN, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AKPEN,
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES. WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST LOOK TO FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
THEN DIMINISH ANY LINGERING BLOWING SNOW THREAT. GENERALLY, MAINLAND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FARTHER OUT WEST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUNDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-
TERM/MONDAY EVENING. WEST OF THIS HIGH IS WHERE WARMER AIR WILL
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH IS WHERE ALL THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO RESIDE. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO THE
WESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACCOMPANYING THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOSTLY BE
RAINFALL. GALE-FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MAINSTAY
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC MARINES ZONES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIR AND
RAINFALL, REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN, POTENTIALLY REACHING ADAK BY
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
-DAN/CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ON TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE BERING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THE GULF
COAST COULD STILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS FROM TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. GUSTY GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE BERING
WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN FOR THE PAST
MONTH, NORTHERLY FLOW, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF
OF THE ICE EDGE OVER AREAS OF OPEN WATERS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE BERING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME GUIDANCE
WANTING TO DRIVE A FRONT EASTWARD, WHICH WOULD BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST BERING.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
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