391
FXAK68 PAFC 220026
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A BROAD UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
STRONG AND COMPACT MESO-LOWS COUNTERCLOCKWISE THROUGH THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED GAP
WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN GAPS AND PASSES OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SOME GAPS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED THROUGH THE MAT
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY, REACHING
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE MESOS WILL GRAZE KODIAK ISLAND THIS
EVENING, BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO KODIAK CITY
AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THAT WILL SWING WEST IN A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE
PREVIOUS LOW.
FOR SUNDAY, MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM(S) MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND PLACE A WEAK
NORTH TO SOUTH JET STREAM OVER THE STATE, ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MORE ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES,
INCLUDING THE MAT VALLEY AND VALDEZ IF THE FEATURES MOVE OVER
THESE AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
KODIAK THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, AND PERHAPS TO A LESS DEGREE
TOMORROW, THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...
COLD AIR, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, AND INSTANCES OF BLOWING SNOW
CONTINUE TO RULE THE ROOST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, ALASKA
PENINSULA (AKPEN), AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. GUSTY
WINDS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNTREND IN STRENGTH STARTING TOMORROW/SUNDAY AS WELL AS A SLOW
WARMING TREND.
ONE OF THE MAIN DRIVING FACTORS AS TO WHY IT HAS BEEN SO COLD
ALONG THE AKPEN AND EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS HAS BEEN THE
SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SEA ICE SHEET ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. THE SEA ICE EDGE HAS MADE IT TO THE BERING SIDE OF THE
AKPEN FROM EGEGIK TO ABOUT COLD BAY AND IS ABOUT 110 MILES
NORTHEAST OF UNALASKA. THEREFORE, THE NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING
ACROSS THE SEA ICE REMAIN COLD AND LITTLE MODIFIED. WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AKPEN AND MAINLAND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER,
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT BE QUICK, BUT RATHER A GRADUAL FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMING TREND ACROSS SOUTHWEST,
EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE
AKPEN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SIBERIA.
FARTHER OUT WEST, THE TREND TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTRAL BERING HAVE BEEN STRONGER. THUS, THIS TREND WILL ALLOW
FOR ADAK AND ATKA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK. WEST OF THE
RIDGE, A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE GALE-FORCE FRONT
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LINGERS OVER KISKA ISLAND
AND AMCHITKA DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST. A SECOND NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONSISTS OF GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GULF AND THE BREAKDOWN OF A PERSISTENT VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE
OVER THE BERING. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY
AND FLATTEN/TILT EASTWARD HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES RIDING OVER AND CUTTING INTO THE
RIDGE, AND A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ENCROACHING ON THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
PROGRESSION OF COLLAPSING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO GAIN MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALSO INTRODUCE SOME RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. FOR THE EAST, CONTINUOUS TROUGHING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL KEEP
SHOWERY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS GOING ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS WAVES WITH ASSOCIATED VORTICITY ADVECTION ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE OVERALL TROUGH
ITSELF SKIRTS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A DIGGING TROUGH
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND, SENDING
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/EC'S TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
SUGGEST THAT THE EAST STAYS WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM WITH SOME MODERATION IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL BERING.
-AM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODICALLY INTO THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.
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