360
FXAK68 PAFC 221248
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A COMPLEX LOW WITH TWO LOW CENTERS REMAINS IN THE GULF AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THESE LOWS
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY, WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE BERING AND A WEAK NORTHERLY JET MOVING
OVER THE MAINLAND. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY HAS
SHIFTED MORE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS SHOWING IT MOVING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. FOR
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER, GAP WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE THROUGH MOST
OF THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS WITH EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...
RELATIVELY MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OBSERVED LAST NIGHT OVER
SOUTHWEST IS A MARK OF THE PATTERN SHIFT ONGOING FOR THE REGION.
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WANE, THE DEEP FRIGID AIR IN SOUTHWEST
HAS MOVED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
IT'S PLACE. THIS EASE OF THE WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THE PRESENCE
OF EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY RATES ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS STILL
UNDER THE CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER THE REMAINING OPEN WATER OF
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. FARTHER OUT WEST, A WEAK FRONT HAS FILLED
IN BEHIND THE RIDGE BRINGING RAINFALL AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE WESTERN-MOST ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE REACHING
ADAK. THUS, THIS TREND WILL ALLOW FOR ADAK AND ATKA TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SECOND NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
-CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONSISTS OF GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GULF AND THE BREAKDOWN OF A PERSISTENT VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE
OVER THE BERING. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY
AND FLATTEN/TILT EASTWARD HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES RIDING OVER AND CUTTING INTO THE
RIDGE, AND A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ENCROACHING ON THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
PROGRESSION OF COLLAPSING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO GAIN MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALSO INTRODUCE SOME RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. FOR THE EAST, CONTINUOUS TROUGHING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL KEEP
SHOWERY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS GOING ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS WAVES WITH ASSOCIATED VORTICITY ADVECTION ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE OVERALL TROUGH
ITSELF SKIRTS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A DIGGING TROUGH
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND, SENDING
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/EC'S TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
SUGGEST THAT THE EAST STAYS WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM WITH SOME MODERATION IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL BERING.
-AM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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