878
FXAK68 PAFC 231301
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE BERING,
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND BRINGING A WEAK A
NORTHEASTERLY JET OVER MAINLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
OVERALL THINKING IS THAT GAP WINDS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH
THE CORRECT FORCING. THIS FORCING IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS THE
SHORTWAVES ARE TAKING ON A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY RIGHT
OVER THE MAT VALLEY.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ALMOST STEADY-
STATE EXCEPT THE TROUGHING BECOMES MORE BROAD IN NATURE. THE ONE
AND PERHAPS ONLY LOCATION TO WATCH FOR ANY NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE KODIAK ISLAND IN THE EVENT ONE OF THESE MORE COMPACT GULF
LOWS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
-AM/CJ
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO PERSIST AS DOES THE STRONG
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS CONFIGURATION, ALLOWS FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR TO CONTINUE FLOWING INTO SOUTHWEST.
GUSTY NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA (AKPEN) THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
PERSISTS AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY BEEN
HELD IN CHECK BY THE LOSS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK FORCING.
THIS EVENING, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
MAY INCREASE SHOWERS ALONG THE AKPEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST ALONG
THE AKPEN AFTER TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES
MOVING OVERHEAD WITH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PRESENT.
FARTHER OUT WEST, A GALE-FORCE FRONT, ORIGINATING FROM A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA, MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT
AND ITS SOUTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS WEAKEN BACK TO SMALL CRAFTS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN REMAINS OVER SHEMYA
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS KISKA ISLAND AND AMCHITKA. DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL BERING RIDGE, THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
(ADAK/ATKA) LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS IN PLACE TO
THEIR WEST. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN BERING AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO SHEMYA.
-DAN/CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ON THURSDAY IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN, TROUGHING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL RIDGING OVER THE
BERING. SURFACE FEATURES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE UNCERTAIN WITH
A LOW POSITIONED SOMEWHERE. DEPENDING ON WHERE IT IS, MORE OR LESS
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL IMPACT THE GULF COAST. REGARDLESS,
INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRIER WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE PATTERN
REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, WITH THE LOW
MEANDERING AROUND THE GULF.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA'S PATTERN IS SIMILARLY UNCERTAIN. THE RIDGE IN
THE BERING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAKDOWN THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
AN UPPER LOW ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
YOU LOOK AT, A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD, BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION, BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN IF THE
LOW WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, SO WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE BERING. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A COLDER AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COLDER SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page