902
FXAK68 PAFC 240004
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKDT MON MAR 23 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE BERING,
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND BRINGING A WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY JET OVER MAINLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE CLEAR AND RELATIVELY CALM. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY STARTING TUESDAY DUE TO
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY
WINDS HAS IMPROVED AS MODELS FURTHER CLARIFY FEATURES. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTERWARDS, BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED TOWARD WASILLA AND THE PARKS
HIGHWAY CORRIDOR. VALDEZ AND THOMPSON PASS COULD ALSO SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ALMOST STEADY-
STATE EXCEPT THE TROUGHING BECOMES MORE BROAD IN NATURE. THE ONE
AND PERHAPS ONLY LOCATION TO WATCH FOR ANY NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE KODIAK ISLAND IN THE EVENT ONE OF THESE MORE COMPACT GULF
LOWS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
-JAR/CJ
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)...
THE WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLAND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST. TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
PERSIST AS DOES THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA,
ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR TO CONTINUE FLOWING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.
GUSTY NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS
AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. WEAK FORCING DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SIMILARLY, WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS BOTH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FARTHER OUT WEST, A STALLED FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO
EASTERN SIBERIA. SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DIMINISH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS
KISKA ISLAND AND AMCHITKA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL
BERING RIDGE, THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS (ADAK/ATKA) LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS IN PLACE TO THEIR WEST. ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
SHEMYA.
-JH
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A FAMILIAR UPPER-AIR SETUP:
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE BERING SEA. A BROAD, MEANDERING
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, THOUGH ITS PRECISE
LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL DRIVE THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ALONG THE GULF COAST -- CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE NEW
LOW TO THE COAST WOULD FAVOR STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, GUSTIER WINDS,
AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, WHILE A MORE DISTANT OR WEAKER
POSITION WOULD LIMIT THOSE IMPACTS. INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO STAY COMPARATIVELY DRY WITH
ONLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE EVOLUTION
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE GULF LOW CONTINUING TO WANDER WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OR ORGANIZED PROGRESSION.
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EQUALLY LOW. THE
BERING SEA RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BREAK
DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM: SOME DEPICT IT SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE BERING SEA
DOMAIN. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD, HOWEVER, ON WHETHER THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND IDENTITY BY THE TIME IT NEARS
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS
FORECASTED TO REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT COLD AIR MASS, WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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