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FXAK68 PAFC 241313
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
513 AM AKDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
THIS MORNING WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE
BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE CLEARING HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE MATSU VALLEYS AND KENAI PENINSULA, TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE CHISANA
AIRPORT IS ONE OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
SITTING AT -26 DEGREES. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH TODAY'S FORECAST
IS THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR. A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALREADY ORIENTING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL WILL TIGHTEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY, THEN REMAIN GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
1PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE MAT-VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST AS HIGH AS 55 MPH, ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF COAST, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO
KODIAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF NO MORE
THAN A DUSTING ARE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BLOWING SNOW WITH THE GUSTIER NORTHEAST WINDS. WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER CONCERN FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING
SNOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK REMAINS DRY
WITH A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND MODERATION OF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS, WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL CLIP THE SOUTHWEST COAST,
BRINGING PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS AND HAZY CONDITIONS TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND WESTERN CAPES. AS THE SHORTWAVES PUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA, PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COLD BAY, KING COVE AND FALSE PASS. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE, WITH DAY TIME TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20'S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY, IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING
SUBZERO.
OVER THE BERING SEA, WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, FARTHER WEST, THE OCCLUDED FRONT LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY
BENIGN OUT THAT WAY, LOW STRATUS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE RAT ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY SPILL OVER INTO
ADAK/ATKA AND SHEMYA.
KM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WILL FEATURE A FAMILIAR
UPPER-AIR SETUP: A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE BERING SEA. A
BROAD, MEANDERING SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN HE GULF OF ALASKA,
THOUGH ITS PRECISE LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY
WILL DRIVE THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ALONG THE GULF COAST-CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF THE NEW LOW TO THE COAST WOULD FAVOR STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW, GUSTIER WINDS, AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, WHILE A MORE
DISTANT OR WEAKER POSITION WOULD LIMIT THOSE IMPACTS. INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
COMPARATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
SHOWS LITTLE EVOLUTION THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE GULF LOW
CONTINUING TO WANDER WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OR ORGANIZED
PROGRESSION.
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EQUALLY LOW. THE
BERING SEA RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVELLOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGE ON THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM:
SOME DEPICT IT SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE BERING SEA DOMAIN.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD, HOWEVER, ON WHETHER THE OW WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND IDENTITY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS FORECASTED
TO REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT COLD AIR MASS, WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
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