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FXAK68 PAFC 250028
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
CURRENTLY, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVALENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE DROPPING FROM THE NORTH, LEADING TO
TIGHT PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THIS IS LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FROM THE CHICKALOON GAP. A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 1 PM
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARD WASILLA AND THE PARKS HIGHWAY CORRIDOR.
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.
VALDEZ AND THOMPSON PASS WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
WITH THE TROUGHING, BUT THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. THE REST OF THE MAINLAND WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM IN
COMPARISON. KODIAK ISLAND MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A LOW IN THE BERING PUSHES SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY, INCLUDING
KODIAK ISLAND.
-JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS DRY AND CLEAR
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, LOW STRATUS, OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS, AND HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS
GUSTY GAP WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC. BEYOND TONIGHT, MAINLY DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY, IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING SUBZERO.
OVER THE BERING SEA, WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, FARTHER WEST, THE OCCLUDED FRONT DISSIPATES
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE RAT ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW REACHES THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE.
JH/KM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL STILL FEATURE A FAMILIAR UPPER-AIR SETUP: A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE BERING SEA. A BROAD, MEANDERING
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN HE GULF OF ALASKA, THOUGH ITS PRECISE
LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL DRIVE THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ALONG THE GULF COAST - CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE NEW
LOW TO THE COAST WOULD FAVOR STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, GUSTIER WINDS,
AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, WHILE A MORE DISTANT OR WEAKER
POSITION WOULD LIMIT THOSE IMPACTS. INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO STAY COMPARATIVELY DRY WITH
ONLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE EVOLUTION
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE GULF LOW CONTINUING TO WANDER WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OR ORGANIZED PROGRESSION.
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EQUALLY LOW. THE
BERING SEA RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGE ON THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM:
SOME DEPICT IT SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE BERING SEA DOMAIN.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD, HOWEVER, ON WHETHER THE LOW WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS FORECASTED
TO REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT COLD AIR MASS, WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
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