914
FXAK68 PAFC 251300
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED MAR 25 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH HAS LINGERED OVER THE
BERING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, IS BECOMING SQUISHED OVER THE TOP OF
A MOSTLY STATIONARY TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
THE GULF. YESTERDAY'S WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH DUG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND ALASKA PENINSULA, HAS SET UP
A GRADIENT OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL. A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MAT-VALLEY REMAIN VALID AND ACTIVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING ANYWHERE FROM 45 TO AS
HIGH AS 55 MPH ACROSS PALMER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF WASILLA.
THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THE CONTINUED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODERATED BY THE GUSTY WINDS IN MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVERING NEAR 20 DEGREES FROM
PALMER TO ANCHORAGE. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
ANCHORAGE HAVE DIPPED BELOW ZERO WITH CAMPBELL CREEK SITTING AT -3
DEGREES AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. IT'S MORE OF A MIXED BAG
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR CHISTOCHINA
ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT GLENNALLEN HAS DROPPED DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXCLUDING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, DAYTIME HIGHS
FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HOVER JUST BELOW OR EVEN JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.
-BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY TRENDING STORMIER
FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA REGION AS A STORM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. NO MAJOR HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DIVING INTO THE DETAILS... AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING SEA IS
SANDWICHED BY AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF EXITING SOUTHWARD AND COLD, DRY AIR MOVING
IN AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
COLD BAY AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING; THOUGH
PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN IN THE AREA, THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL BEFORE DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES MOVE IN.
FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES UNDER THE RIDGE, WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
THICKNESS AS THE LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA APPROACHES. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE LIKELY FOR SHEMYA, ADAK, AND ATKA AS A STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. RAIN BECOMES STEADIER AS THE
LOW AND ITS FRONT MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. OVERALL, WITH THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE BERING SEA, THIS STORM IS VERY
UNLIKELY TO BRING MAJOR HAZARDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 35
KT / 40 MPH, AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. STILL,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LINGERING COLD AIR COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL
HOURS OF BLOWING SNOW, WITH MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, FOR THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
-KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL STILL FEATURE A FAMILIAR UPPER- AIR SETUP: A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE BERING SEA. A BROAD, MEANDERING
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN HE GULF OF ALASKA, THOUGH ITS PRECISE
LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL DRIVE THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ALONG THE GULF COAST- CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE NEW LOW
TO THE COAST WOULD FAVOR STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, GUSTIER WINDS, AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, WHILE A MORE DISTANT OR WEAKER POSITION
WOULD LIMIT THOSE IMPACTS. INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL,
HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO STAY COMPARATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE EVOLUTION INTO TUESDAY,
WITH THE GULF LOW CONTINUING TO WANDER WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OR ORGANIZED PROGRESSION.
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EQUALLY LOW. THE
BERING SEA RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVELLOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGE ON THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM:
SOME DEPICT IT SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE BERING SEA DOMAIN.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD, HOWEVER, ON WHETHER THE LOW WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS FORECASTED
TO REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT COLD AIR MASS, WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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