975
FXAK68 PAFC 252322
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 PM AKDT WED MAR 25 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE LOW CENTERS
CONTINUES TO RULE THE ROOST IN THE GULF WHILE HIGHER PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO REIGN SUPREME ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH
MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REMAINING DRY WITH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COAST AT TIMES. THIS IS DEFINITELY THE CASE WITH KODIAK ISLAND
WHERE A WAVE OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND,
INCLUDING KODIAK CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND MAY GET CLIPPED AGAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW ANOTHER MESO-LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FAVORED
TERRAIN, GAPS, AND PASSES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE, WITH WIND GUSTS NOT
PERSISTENTLY HITTING 50 MPH ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT HAS BEEN OUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. GAP WINDS WILL START TO TREND DOWN STARTING FRIDAY WHEN
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO RELAX AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
GULF.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY TRENDING STORMIER
FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA REGION AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. NO MAJOR HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
UPPER WAVES ARE DROPPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THESE ARE
LEADING TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MAINLAND AND
SOME NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. SKIES OVER THE MAINLAND ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A LOW IN THE WEST BERING
WILL MOVE EASTWARD, ADVANCING A FRONT SITTING OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND A LINE OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
ALEUTIANS. A WARM AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, SO
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR RAIN AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SATURDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN AT THIS POINT,
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY GUSTY. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW WILL PUSH
INLAND, BRINGING PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL DESPITE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOWFALL EXPECTED IS
STILL BEING CLARIFIED, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
-JAR/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...
STARTING WITH SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING BRINGS POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE
PRIBILOFS, RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AND
SNOW TO THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FOR KODIAK AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW.
TEMPERATURES APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THEY WARM INTO THE LOW
30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SOUTHWEST, AND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW REFORMS
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, RENEWING THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING.
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