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FXAK68 PAFC 261301
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 AM AKDT THU MAR 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...
ANOTHER CLEAR DAY DAWNS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE INTERIOR. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A MAT-VALLEY WIND CONTINUES. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING FROM 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
PALMER. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST, WITH PERHAPS KODIAK BRIEFLY GETTING CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW
WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
GULF LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY ERODE BY THE
WEEKEND'S END AND NEXT WEEK WILL HOPEFULLY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S.
BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GENERALLY EXPECT A STORMIER TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH RAIN OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS REGION, AND LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WHILE SOME
FORECAST QUESTIONS REMAIN, NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
DIVING INTO THE DETAILS... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY
FEATURES A LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA, AND A BROAD LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA
WILL PUSH EASTWARDS, DISPLACING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING AN END TO
THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE LOW WILL BE OCCLUDING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING SEA;
AS SUCH, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE.
STILL, WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE
LOW AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES, THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SHOULD SEE
EITHER ALL RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA, WHICH MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY
SEE PRECIPITATION REMAIN ALL SNOW, AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
ORDER OF A HANDFUL OF INCHES ON SATURDAY.
-KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...
STARTING WITH SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING BRINGS POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE
PRIBILOFS, RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AND
SNOW TO THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FOR KODIAK AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW.
TEMPERATURES APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THEY WARM INTO THE LOW
30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SOUTHWEST, AND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW REFORMS
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, RENEWING THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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