985
FZAK30 PAFC 261507
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
707 AM AKDT THURSDAY 26 MARCH 2026
…MARCH 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
MARCH BEGAN WITH AN ICE EDGE ADVANCING BACK SOUTHWARD AFTER A PERIOD
OF RETREAT. THE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN REMAINED CONDUCIVE FOR ICE
ADVANCE AND GROWTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE MONTH WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THE PATTERN ALLOWED FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE MONTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. AS SUCH, BY LATE MARCH, THE ICE EDGE
WAS NEAR-RECORD EXTENT ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. LOOKING HISTORICALLY, THE ICE EDGE HAS PROGRESSED
PAST ST. GEORGE ISLAND ON ONLY TWO OTHER TIMES IN THE SATELLITE
RECORD (1976-PRESENT). THE ICE EXTENT COVERED NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CONTINENTAL SHELF IN THE BERING SEA. HOWEVER, DESPITE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS, THE ICE EDGE ADVANCE HAS BEEN SLOWED BY WARMER
WATER IN THE BERING SEA IN THE 1-2C RANGE.
COOK INLET SHARED A SIMILAR ARCTIC AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS, BRINGING
THE ICE EDGE TO THE GREATEST EXTENT IN MANY YEARS.
LOOKING FORWARD TO BREAK-UP, LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL BY THE END OF WINTER AND REMAIN FOR EARLY
SUMMER.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
THE TWO CLOSEST HISTORICAL ANALOGS FOR ICE IN THE BERING SEA ARE
2010 AND 2012. BOTH OF THESE YEARS FEATURED ICE BREAK-UP DATES MUCH
LATER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT YEARS. THE MARCH OUTLOOK WILL
RELY HEAVILY ON THESE ANALOG YEARS, HOWEVER, THE PREVAILING WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY HAVE JUST AS MUCH OF AN EFFECT AS THE CURRENT
ICE EXTENT.
THE LAST ICE AT SAINT GEORGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
PREVAILING STORM TRACK. A STORM TRACK TO THE EAST INTO BRISTOL BAY
WILL LINGER ICE NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LONGER. THE LAST ICE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY.
THE LAST ICE AT SAINT PAUL ISLAND IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF MAY.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-MAY.
ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE.
FOR KUSKOKWIM BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. THREE-TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN BY THE END OF
MAY BUT ARE MORE LIKELY IN EARLY JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT TO CAPE ROMONZOF, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID-JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
FOR CAPE ROMONZOF TO NUNAM IQUA, ICE COULD NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF
JUNE.
FOR NUNAM IQUA TO UNALAKLEET, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF JUNE.
FOR SHAKTOOLIK LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF JUNE. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
END OF JUNE.
FOR NORTON BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MID-
JUNE.
FOR GOLOVIN BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST BY THE
END OF MAY BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO EARLY-JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-JUNE.
FOR THE NOME COAST, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST AROUND
THE END OF MAY. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MID-JUNE.
FOR NORTON SOUND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF JUNE BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO EARLY-JULY.
FOR PORT CLARENCE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF 60N, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE, BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO EARLY JULY.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF JUNE, BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO
EARLY JULY.
FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE BERING STRAIT, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING STRAIT TO 20 NM N/S OF CENTER LINE, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE END OF JUNE BUT COULD BE DELAYED
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
JULY.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE, BUT COULD BE DELAYED
TO THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE LAST WEEK OF MAY OR FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, ICE COULD NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST BY
THE END OF JUNE BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN EARLY JULY.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST NEAR THE END OF JUNE BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE BEGINNING
OF JULY.
FOR CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST NEAR THE END OF JUNE, BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE
BEGINNING OF JULY.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE SHOREFAST BY THE END OF JUNE BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE
BEGINNING OF JULY.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND ICE FREE OR OPEN IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-APRIL.
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS ICE FREE OR OPEN IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-APRIL.
FOR THE FORELANDS TO FIRE ISLAND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL.
TURNAGAIN ARM IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE OR OPEN DURING THE THIRD
WEEK OF APRIL.
KNIK ARM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE DURING
THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL, ICE FREE OR OPEN DURING THE LAST WEEK OF
APRIL.
COOK INLET OUTSIDE OF TURNAGAIN AND KNIK ARMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE
FREE OR OPEN DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
COOK INLET SEA ICE FREE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
LAWSON
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