421
FXAK68 PAFC 242336
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKDT FRI APR 24 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)...
KEY POINTS:
* CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WET AND WINDY WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
* THE WETTEST WEATHER WILL BE THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH LESSER RAIN IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR.
* STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE TURNAGAIN ARM, ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE, SOUTH
TO WEST ANCHORAGE, PALMER AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY, AND
GLENNALLEN AND THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY.
* MORE WET AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TROUGH IN THE BERING
SEA/NORTH PACIFIC AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TO THE TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND YUKON TERRITORY. DEEP
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM AROUND 40N LATITUDE UP TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH THE STRONGEST MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE AND AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY MORNING. INLAND, THE SUSITNA VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SINCE FALLEN LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING AND FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO BE CANCELED.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THE
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE KNIK AND COPPER VALLEYS THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM HAVE
LARGELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ARM WITH LITTLE TO NO BEND INLAND
OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. LOCATIONS AT ELEVATION, SUCH AS RABBIT
CREEK AND FLATTOP HAVE SEEN SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35 TO
50 MPH TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
GULF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. KODIAK
ISLAND WILL LOOK TO RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WAVE WEAKENS WITH ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION.
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM A STRONG BERING STORM
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THUS,
UNSEASONABLY WET AND WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE TO WATCH
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD AIR, IF ANY, WORKS IN
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF COLD AIR MEETS UP WITH
MOISTURE, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ADAK AND ATKA FROM
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO
80 MPH. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NIKOLSKI AND
UNALASKA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS, WITH HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS, COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE MARINE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
THE PATTERN IN PLACE IS LITTLE CHANGED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF A BROAD
TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST.
AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALONG AND AHEAD
OF MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH WITHIN A ZONE OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS, WHERE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE PREVAILING.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE CUT SHORT FAIRLY SOON.
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL PHASE
STRONGLY WITH A POTENT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN INTO A 950-960 MB HURRICANE FORCE LOW AS IT
APPROACHES ADAK AND ATKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKELY THAT
THE LOW CENTER WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA NEAR
OR JUST WEST OF ADAK BY SATURDAY EVENING. A STING JET OF INTENSE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER, AND THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS WILL PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY PRIOR TO
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA, THIS CORRIDOR OF WINDS WILL STILL BE
QUITE INTENSE. STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MARINE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60
TO 80 MPH TO IMPACT ADAK, ATKA, NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOW HIGH GUSTS WILL
BE IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK,
WHICH MAY MEAN A DECREASING THREAT OF HIGH WINDS FOR UNALASKA.
STILL, WE'LL BE CLOSELY MONITORING HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AS MODELS
TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOWS.
OTHERWISE, SEAS AS HIGH AS 40 FT WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BETWEEN ADAK
AND NIKOLSKI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FARTHER NORTH, THE LOW'S LEADING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
PRIBILOFS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INITIALLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HOVERING AT
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS POINT, SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE GUSTY WINDS TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW CENTER PERSIST. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST
COAST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SIMILAR PROGRESSION FROM WET SNOW TO
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ALSO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONT.
BY MONDAY, THE LOW WILL COMPLETELY STALL OUT WEST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS IT BEGINS TO STEADILY FILL AND WEAKEN FROM A STORM
FORCE TO A GALE FORCE SYSTEM. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL VERY
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS THE LOW WEAKENS, BUT
40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL STILL BE COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR ATKA AND ADAK. STEADIER SNOW/RAIN ALONG
THE LOW'S FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
GRADUALLY LOSES STRENGTH.
-AS/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST ROUND ARRIVES EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND, TAPPING INTO A STEADY
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM WEAKENS, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE GULF WHERE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. OVERALL, CONDITIONS
WILL STAY UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AND
50S FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...LIGHT NORTHERLY TO OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AGAIN. AS
THAT HAPPENS, LLWS CONCERNS SHOULD ABATE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THOUGH ANY PASSING
SHOWERS MAY DROP CEILINGS BELOW 5,000 FT AGL.
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