018
FXAK68 PAFC 251312
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
MONDAY EVENING)...
HE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, WITH A TROUGH
IN THE BERING SEA/NORTH PACIFIC AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND CANADIAN ARCTIC.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN EAST TO THE
AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES IS THE POTENT WAVE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION YESTERDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE
LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN, MAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS COOK INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
IS ALSO LINGERING IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING, TRAPPED IN PLACE DUE TO A WEAK WIND FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES
WARM WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
GULF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. KODIAK
ISLAND WILL LOOK TO RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WAVE WEAKENS WITH ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ADVECTING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH OVER COOK INLET AND INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. AS SUCH, AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GAP WINDS WILL ALSO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, ANY WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM A
STRONG BERING STORM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
RAIN AND WIND EVENT. THUS, UNSEASONABLY WET AND WINDY WEATHER WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
-TM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60-75 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ADAK AND ATKA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS, WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
AND SEAS UP TO 40 FT, WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE MARINE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES INTO A 950-960 MB HURRICANE FORCE LOW AS IT
APPROACHES ADAK AND ATKA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA NEAR ADAK THIS
EVENING. A STING JET OF INTENSE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW CENTER, AND THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS WILL PROGRESS
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL REACH PEAK
INTENSITY PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA, THIS CORRIDOR OF
WINDS WILL STILL BE QUITE INTENSE. STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MARINE
WATERS SURROUNDING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH TO IMPACT ADAK, ATKA,
NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERSISTED WITH KEEPING THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST WEST OF NIKOLSKI, SO HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WINDS WILL GUST
60-75 MPH, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF STRAY GUSTS OVER 75 MPH IN
NIKOLSKI.
FARTHER NORTH, THE LOW'S LEADING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
PRIBILOFS ON TONIGHT, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INITIALLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HOVERING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS POINT, SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE GUSTY WINDS TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW CENTER PERSIST. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST
COAST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SIMILAR PROGRESSION FROM WET SNOW TO
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ALSO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONT.
BY MONDAY, THE LOW WILL COMPLETELY STALL OUT WEST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS IT BEGINS TO STEADILY FILL AND WEAKEN FROM A STORM
FORCE TO A GALE FORCE SYSTEM. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL VERY
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS THE LOW WEAKENS, BUT
40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL STILL BE COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR ATKA AND ADAK. STEADIER SNOW/RAIN ALONG
THE LOW'S FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
GRADUALLY LOSES STRENGTH.
-AS/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST ROUND ARRIVES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES INLAND, TAPPING INTO A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM WEAKENS, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE GULF WHERE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL STAY UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LM
AVIATION
PANC...EARLY MORNING AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DROP
CEILINGS BELOW 5,000 FT AGL, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
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