072
FXAK68 PAFC 260117
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 PM AKDT SAT APR 25 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AFTER A MORNING SOCKED IN WITH FOG, ANCHORAGE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS FINALLY CLEARED ENOUGH TO ENJOY PERIODS OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE
BEEN VERY PLEASANT AND IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT
WINDS, THANKS TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST,
AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PUSHING INTO THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS EVENING, WITH A FRONT ALREADY SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A NEW TROUGH WILL LIFT ALONG
THIS FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN
GULF LATE TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE
COAST AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER, LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ON TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION.
-BL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG, HURRICANE FORCE LOW IS APPROACHING ADAK
AND ATKA THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 60-75 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ADAK AND ATKA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS, WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
AND SEAS UP TO 40 FT, WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE MARINE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS REVEALED RAPID
ORGANIZATION OF A QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING ADAK
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DENSE, COLD CLOUD
TOPS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE LOW'S CENTER. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE
OF A DEVELOPING STING JET FEATURE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW. A CLEAR WARM/DRY INTRUSION WRAPPING INTO THIS SYSTEM IS NOW
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, INDICATIVE OF STRONG SINKING
MOTION AND WARMING/DRYING OF COLD AIR ALOFT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO
RECENT PASSES FROM REMOTE INSTRUMENTS (SUCH AS SCATTEROMETER) TO
GIVE A MORE OBJECTIVE INDICATION OF WIND SPEEDS AROUND THE LOW,
THERE IS GOOD CHANCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS CORRIDOR OF
HIGH WINDS WILL SOON MOVE OVER MARINE WATERS SOUTH OF ADAK AND
ATKA AS THE LOW CROSSES OVER FROM THE PACIFIC TO BERING SIDE,
AROUND THE SAME TIME THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE REACHES MAXIMUM
STRENGTH, DIPPING TO APPROXIMATELY 955 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA. ALONG THE LOW'S ATTENDANT FRONT, A SWATH OF
GALE TO LOW-END STORM FORCE WINDS AND A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW IS
PROGRESSING QUICKLY NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS, AND WILL SOON APPROACH THE AKPEN AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THINGS ARE LOOKING
VERY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES NORTH INTO
THE BERING SEA. ADAK AND ATKA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS AS STRONG AS 80 MPH AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
MOVES ACROSS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AS STRONG AS 55 TO 65
MPH MOVING THROUGH NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA WILL BECOME SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW'S FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE ALEUTIANS WILL LIKELY BE WORSE FOR NIKOLSKI, WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 75 MPH ARE LIKELY AT PEAK INTENSITY EARLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING. UNALASKA WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE LOW
TRACK TO AVOID THE WORST OF THE WINDS WITH THE SECOND ROUND COMING
IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL, EXPECT 50 TO 60 MPH TO BE
COMMON AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPTAIN'S BAY.
LOOKING TO THE NORTH AND WEST, THE BERING LOW'S FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY PAST THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, SENDING A
QUICK ROUND OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE
ISLANDS ALONG WITH WET SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT CONTINUES INTO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS AS
STRONG AS 40 TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST, BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL STALL OUT WEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND CUT OFF
FROM THE PACIFIC JET MOVING TO THE SOUTH. STEADIER RAIN AND SNOW
ALONG THE LOW'S FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STEADILY WEAKENS IN PLACE. WINDS ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL STEADILY DECREASE AS THE
LOW WEAKENS, DROPPING FROM STORM FORCE TO GALE FORCE SUSTAINED
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
-AS
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEEK'S FIRST STORM
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PUSH A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE REGION
STARTING LATE EARLY THURSDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME TYPICAL LONG-RANGE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHICH
SPECIFIC COASTAL OR INLAND AREAS SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
DESPITE THE DAMP CONDITIONS, A BROAD SHIFT IN AIRFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH WILL TRIGGER A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE STATE. AS
THIS MILDER PACIFIC ARE MOVES IN, DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
ELEVATIONS AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIME INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS
TEMPERATURE SPIKE MEANS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION AT SEA LEVEL WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY FALL AS RAIN, WHILE THE SNOW LINE WILL RETREAT TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES, THE REGION STAYS WITHIN THIS ACTIVE
STRETCH, WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
RATHER THAN A TOTAL CLEARING. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
MAY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE AIRPORT THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPING LATE MORNING SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL HELP DRY OUT
THE SURFACE AND, COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER, ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING LIKE IT DID THIS MORNING.
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