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FXAK68 PAFC 261303
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
503 AM AKDT SUN APR 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST, EXITING THE REGION BY MIDDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
LINGER ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS, WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE ANCHORAGE BOWL, AND THE MAT-SU
VALLEYS. THE SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING, STAYING SOMEWHAT CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TALKEETNA AND WRANGELL MOUNTAINS, AS UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WANES.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO SOUTHCENTRAL LATER TODAY AS A SECOND
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND COOK INLET.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH TYPICAL
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND KNIK
RIVER VALLEY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THEN STALLS AND OCCLUDES NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. BOTH
FEATURE THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS COOK INLET BY LATE MONDAY,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND, THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, AND ALASKA RANGE, A PATTERN VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT EXPERIENCED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ONLY A FEW DAYS
AGO. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT WILL SPIN UP
NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND WEAKEN
MONDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OF SOME VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE, AND KNIK RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
FOR S AND W ANCHORAGE AND PALMER ALONG WITH GUSTS UP 65 MPH FOR
THE UPPER HILLSIDE.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF, BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPINNING UP A NEW
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. COLDER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
PRECIPITATION FILLS IN OVER COOK INLET, THE ANCHORAGE BOWL, AND
MAT-SU VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, AS
SNOW LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 1,000FT TUESDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL
LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
-TM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXPECT GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
AS OUR UNSEASONABLY STRONG BERING SEA LOW WEAKENS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ADAK AND ATKA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60-75 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
MARINE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. OUR UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BERING SEA LOW IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF ATKA, WITH ITS FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. NOTABLE OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS WITH THIS
STORM INCLUDE A PEAK WIND OF 72 MPH IN ST. GEORGE AND 60-70 MPH
WINDS IN ADAK, ATKA, ST. PAUL, AND NELSON LAGOON. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING, ADAK, ATKA, AND NIKOLSKI WILL
VERY LIKELY SEE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG KUSKOKWIM DELTA, BASED ON THE
CONDITIONS THAT WERE OBSERVED IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES LINGERING A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING, VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
LONG BEFORE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN LATER TODAY.
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL STALL OUT WEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND CUT OFF FROM
THE PACIFIC JET MOVING TO THE SOUTH. STEADIER RAIN AND SNOW ALONG
THE LOW'S FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE LOW STEADILY WEAKENS IN PLACE. WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AND ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL STEADILY DECREASE AS THE LOW
WEAKENS, DROPPING FROM STORM FORCE TO GALE FORCE SUSTAINED SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
-AS/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEEK'S FIRST STORM
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PUSH A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE REGION
STARTING LATE EARLY THURSDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME TYPICAL LONG-RANGE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHICH
SPECIFIC COASTAL OR INLAND AREAS SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
DESPITE THE DAMP CONDITIONS, A BROAD SHIFT IN AIRFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH WILL TRIGGER A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE STATE. AS
THIS MILDER PACIFIC ARE MOVES IN, DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
ELEVATIONS AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS
TEMPERATURE SPIKE MEANS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION AT SEA LEVEL WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY FALL AS RAIN, WHILE THE SNOW LINE WILL RETREAT TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES, THE REGION STAYS WITHIN THIS ACTIVE
STRETCH, WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
RATHER THAN A TOTAL CLEARING. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
MAY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z MONDAY, 3000 TO 5000 FT CEILINGS MAY
BE POSSIBLE, AND SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS REDEVELOP,
PEAKING AROUND 06Z MONDAY AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS BEFORE BENDING SOUTH, AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL AREA BY 15Z
MONDAY.
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