255
FXAK68 PAFC 270019
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKDT SUN APR 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE AND STRONG LOW (IN THE UPPER 950S MB AS OF
SUNDAY MORNING) IN THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE OVERALL
PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES THAT PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
THIS LARGE BERING SEA LOW. THE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES. NOW ON THE THE
DETAILS:
THIS AFTERNOON, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS LARGE LOW IN THE
BERING SEA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF THE LOW WITH
THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN TO THE EAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS WELL INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE IN THE FORM
ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH TYPICAL
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
KNIK RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT STALLS AND OCCLUDES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
MONDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AND WINDS ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. BOTH FEATURES THEN
LIFT NORTH ACROSS COOK INLET BY LATE MONDAY, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS, AND ALASKA RANGE. THIS IS A PATTERN VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT EXPERIENCED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ONLY A FEW DAYS
AGO. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT WILL SPIN
UP NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE, AND KNIK RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR S AND W ANCHORAGE AND PALMER ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 55
TO 65 MPH FOR THE ANCHORAGE UPPER HILLSIDE. THE EXPECTED WINDS
OVER 60 MPH HAVE RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ANCHORAGE
AND EAGLE RIVER HILLSIDE AREAS FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 2 AM
TUESDAY.
THE MOST COMPLEX PART OF THE FORECAST ARRIVES RIGHT AFTER THAT
WIND ADVISORY ENDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT IS WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
ANCHORAGE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH FOR THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY SHOULD BE FULLY RAIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD MIX IN WITH A LITTLE SNOW, BUT
THE SNOW WOULD MELT UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. THE SNOW LEVEL
TRIES TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN REMAIN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT TUESDAY. THIS SNOW
LEVEL COULD BE MEANINGFUL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SINCE AFTER THE
RAIN AND SNOW ENDS WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW SOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THESE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS, ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH
CONVECTION FOR SMALL HAIL TO OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN
SHOWERS FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-TM/EZ
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 2: TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DISCUSSION:
OUR LARGE BERING SEA LOW REMAINS STATIONARY AT 962 MB, CENTERED
ROUGHLY 150 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S FRONT IS
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA CURRENTLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM LOWER KALSKAG SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEW
STUYAHOK AND IGIUGIG. THIS RAIN ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT, IF NOT EARLIER. A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC, BRINGS RENEWED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THE BERING SEA LOW IS MAINTAINING A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF
GALE FORCE WINDS, WHICH WRAP EASTWARD THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND
THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. BOTH THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ADAK/ATKA, AS WELL AS THE HIGH WIND ADVISORY
FOR NIKOLSKI AND UNALASKA, HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH WINDS
DROPPING WELL BELOW CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE BERING SEA LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTWARD JAUNT IN THE LOW'S POSITION WILL BRING RENEWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST AND DEGRADES FURTHER. THIS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST
ON TUESDAY, WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
BL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
LOOKING AHEAD, AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING, ON THURSDAY, BRINGING IMPACTS TO BOTH
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING VERY STRONG GUSTS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKAN PENINSULA, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS PRONE TO
GAP WINDS. THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, ROBUST TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA, INCLUDING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. AS THE BERING LOW MIGRATES
NORTH, IT WILL PUSH ITS FRONT THROUGH THE GULF, MOVING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
-CW
AVIATION
PANC...THE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE PREVALENT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A REPRIEVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEY SHOULD REDEVELOP AGAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
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