196
FXAK68 PAFC 271208
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
408 AM AKDT MON APR 27 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)...
A LARGE, VERTICALLY STACKED AND OCCLUDED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY MID-WEEK. THIS BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER ALASKA PANHANDLE, WILL KEEP THE OVERALL PATTERN
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL UNSETTLED, WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
THIS LARGE BERING SEA LOW. THE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES. NOW ON THE THE
DETAILS:
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THIS LARGE LOW IN THE BERING
SEA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND EXTENDING OUTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AND
DRAPED JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. A TRIPLE
POINT SITS NEAR KING SALMON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THE STOUT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY GAP WINDS
IS NOW NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE GAP
WINDS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND TROUGH AND A COASTAL RIDGE WEAKENS
AND REORIENTS IN A SLIGHTLY MORE EAST TO WEST DIRECTION.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AND WINDS ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. BOTH FEATURES
THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS COOK INLET BY LATE MONDAY, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS, AND ALASKA RANGE. A PATTERN AND STORM TRACK
REMINISCENT OF THAT EXPERIENCED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ONLY A FEW
DAYS AGO. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT WILL
SPIN UP NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE, AND KNIK RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR S AND W ANCHORAGE AND PALMER ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 55
TO 65 MPH FOR THE ANCHORAGE UPPER HILLSIDE. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ANCHORAGE AND EAGLE RIVER HILLSIDE AREAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NOON MONDAY THROUGH 2 AM TUESDAY.
THE MOST COMPLEX PART OF THE FORECAST ARRIVES RIGHT AFTER THAT
WIND ADVISORY ENDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT IS WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
ANCHORAGE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH FOR THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY SHOULD BE FULLY RAIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD MIX IN WITH A LITTLE SNOW, BUT
THE SNOW WOULD MELT UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. THE SNOW LEVEL
LOOS TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT TUESDAY. THIS SNOW
LEVEL COULD BE MEANINGFUL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SINCE AFTER THE
RAIN AND SNOW ENDS WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW SOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THESE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS, ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH
CONVECTION FOR SMALL HAIL TO OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN
SHOWERS FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-TM/EZ
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 2: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LARGE BERING SEA LOW ROUGHLY 150 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AT 965 MB EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH TODAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING. WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION WILL ROTATE NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BRINGING RENEWED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TODAY.
THE BERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LARGE CIRCULATION OF
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. CONDITIONS REMAIN
GENERALLY UNSETTLED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRACKS BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH, SHIFTING THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FARTHER WEST, THE NEXT
LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT TRACKS EAST, BUT STILL BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
LOOKING AHEAD, AND ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING, ON THURSDAY, BRINGING IMPACTS TO BOTH
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING VERY STRONG GUSTS TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKAN PENINSULA, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
PRONE TO GAP WINDS. THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, ROBUST
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. AS THE
BERING LOW MIGRATES NORTH, IT WILL PUSH ITS FRONT THROUGH THE
GULF, MOVING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
-CW
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO PERIODICALLY DIP BELOW 5000 FT. TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT 15 TO 18 KT
WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TUESDAY.
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