240
FXAK68 PAFC 280105
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
505 PM AKDT MON APR 27 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE LARGE, VERTICALLY STACKED AND OCCLUDED LOW, WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TODAY AND THEN WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY
MID-WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A HIGH-
AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER ALASKA PANHANDLE, WILL KEEP THE
OVERALL PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL UNSETTLED, WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE REGION.
THESE SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE SHOWERS TODAY ARE AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH KODIAK BY
LATE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH COOK INLET AND
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER GAP WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE
UNTIL AROUND 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THERE REMAIN A WIND
ADVISORY OUT FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 MPH TO 65 MPH RANGE. WINDS
WILL WORK INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE PALMER-WASILLA AREAS AS
WELL, BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS ALONG THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE. WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE
ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO KEEP
IT ALL RAIN. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE BETWEEN 100 TO 200 FT AT ITS
LOWEST EXTENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE
2000 FT FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THERE COULD BE A NUMBER
OF HOURS OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE COOK INLET REGION AND UP
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW
FREEZING LEVELS. THEREFORE, WITH ANY SUNNY BREAKS TO INCREASE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT, SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL IN THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE
MAY BE LESS IN THE WAY OF SUNNY BREAKS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. ON
THURSDAY, A NEW FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT BERING SEA LOW
WILL MOVE TO KODIAK ISLAND BRINGING MORE RAINFALL AND INCREASED
WINDS AGAIN. FOR MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL, THERE COULD BE A
SUNNY BREAK OR TWO BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 2: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A LARGE BERING SEA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ITSELF TO DEATH
THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY PROGGED AT 965 MB, THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
YOUNGER LOW MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.
ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING ARE SHOWERS THAT STRETCH FROM NEWTOK,
EAST THROUGH ANIAK AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILIAMNA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WRAPS ALL OF THE WAY
BACK INTO THE BERING SEA LOW. ON AND OFF SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AKPEN AND AREAS OF SW ALASKA, WITH BROAD
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN, NEVER ENDING WESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A SMALL TRANSIENT RIDGE NOSES IN BEHIND THE
BERING LOW AND AN APPROACHING NW PACIFIC LOW. THIS NEXT LOW, SET
TO IMPACT ADAK AND AREAS EAST, WILL NOT BE AS POTENT AS LAST
WEEKS SYSTEM, BUT WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND WESTERLY
WINDS. ACROSS THE YK DELTA, SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS
EXPECTED, WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL START
AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE KUSKO MOUNTAINS, EVENTUALLY WORKING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR THE COAST FROM TOKSOOK BAY TO KONGIGANAK.
IT'S NOT LOOKING LIKE SNOW WILL IMPACT BETHEL, AS THEY WILL BE A
RAIN TO RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THAT TIME.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
BY FRIDAY, TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS MERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN, FORMING ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM THAT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN TAP INTO
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING
ACROSS MUST OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES INTO THE
EASTERN BERING/BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT UP THE
COAST, SENDING A FRONT OR TWO THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND WET WEATHER
THROUGH WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY FOR COASTAL REGIONS, SUCH AS THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF & GFS)
INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT, WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WOULD BRING DRIER, MORE
SEASONAL WEATHER TO THE REGION. OTHER MODELS, SUCH AS THE
CANADIAN, HAVE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING, WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PERSISTING IN THE BERING AND SWINGING MORE
FRONTS THROUGH THE GULF.
AVIATION
PANC...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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