023
FXAK68 PAFC 290114
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
514 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND BRITISH COLUMBIA KEEP THE
WESTERN GULF IN GENERAL SW FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL, KODIAK ISLAND, AND THE AKPEN.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRAINING NORTHEAST OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-
SU. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. WEATHER WILL GENERALLY TREND QUIETER FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW SET TO BEGIN
IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SEWARD. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH ESPECIALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS
DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM, THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE, KNIK RIVER VALLEY, AND
THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL INITIALLY
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS, LIMITING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE COOK INLET REGION NORTH OF ANCHOR
POINT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MORE INLAND SEE SHOWERS AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE AND OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WEAK UPPER WAVES ON ITS EASTERN
FLANK ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA, KEEPING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BERING
LOW, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SOUTH OF AMCHITKA
AND ADAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ITS FRONT PIVOTING NORTHWARD AND
GRAZING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW ITSELF STAYS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.
HOWEVER, ITS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD, LIGHT SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BREAK OUT THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM (Y-K) DELTA. ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WITH
ELEVATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, THOUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM COAST COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY WARM THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL CHANGE SNOW OVER TO
RAIN...AND THE TREND FROM THE GUIDANCE IS FOR THAT TRANSITION TO
HAPPEN FASTER THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE PARENT LOW SLOWLY GAINS LATITUDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS, THE FRONT REORIENTS ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA SO THAT AN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN KAMISHAK
GAP WINDS, WHICH MAY START TO BECOME IMPACTFUL AT THE VERY END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. YET ANOTHER FRONT MAKES AN APPEARANCE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS, KEEPING THE STATUS QUO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE,
YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
-AM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
LOOKING AHEAD, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA THROUGH WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN BERING BY
FRIDAY. WHILE NOT AS DEEP AS OUR CURRENT BERING LOW, IT WILL STILL
BE A FAIRLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM, SENDING NORTH A STEADY STREAM
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE FRONTS ACROSS THE GULF. A
PARTICULARLY STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE SENT INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL REGIONS, INCLUDING THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS, LIKELY FUNNELING THROUGH TYPICAL GAPS SUCH AS THE
TURNAGAIN ARM AND KAMISHAK GAP. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR, WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF IN
MOST AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK, WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY; THIS COULD HELP BLOCK THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW FROM
MOVING INLAND, KEEPING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW
LONG THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
-CW
AVIATION
PANC...BREAKS OF SUN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL COMBINE WITH COOL AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER
SOME CONVECTION. SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN KENAI
AND STREAM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
SUNLIGHT LATER THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRIER WITH FEWER CLOUDS/MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER,
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.
TURNAGAIN WINDS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER THE SHOWERS END TONIGHT. WITH
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND SOME
SUNSHINE HELPING WARM TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A SEASONALLY TYPICAL
LIGHT SEA BREEZE (WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND) TO DEVELOP.
-SEB
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