160
FXAK68 PAFC 291304
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
SKIES WERE ABLE TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI, ANCHORAGE
BOWL, AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, A WEAK COASTAL
RIDGE WAS ABLE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
AND TURN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF ANCHORAGE...QUICKLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS THE
INVERSION MIXED OUT. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES; HOWEVER, TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PICK UP THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
TOWARDS THE AKPEN.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER THE
BERING HAS FINALLY STARTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT.
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE
AKPEN AND WESTERN GULF BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY THIS
EVENING. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION IN CHECK
TODAY, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS, AND MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH, COULD KICK UP SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SKIRTS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THEN LIFTING TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST SPREAD
ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI, AS WELL AS, INTO
THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. A REINFORCING WAVE WILL FOLLOW ALLOWING
THE EXTRA PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SEWARD. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH ESPECIALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS DOWN
TURNAGAIN ARM, THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE, KNIK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL INITIALLY DOWNSLOPE
AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS, LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR THE COOK INLET REGION NORTH OF ANCHOR POINT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE INLAND AREAS
SEE SHOWERS AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA UP THROUGH THE YK DELTA WITHIN THE
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW IN THE BERING
SEA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES NORTH AND DISSIPATES. THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST FINALLY SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE BERING LOW TO THE
NEXT STORM TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC CURRENTLY CENTERED
ROUGHLY 150 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA AT AROUND 980 MB. ITS FRONT WILL
PIVOT NORTHWARD AND GRAZE THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE CONTINUING EAST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
RAIN.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD, LIGHT SNOWFALL LOOKS TO
BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE YK DELTA.
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS WITH ELEVATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS,
THOUGH THE KUSKOKWIM COAST COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO
OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY WARM
THE AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL CHANGE SNOW
OVER TO RAIN.
AS THE PARENT LOW SLOWLY GAINS LATITUDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS, THE FRONT REORIENTS ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA SO THAT AN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN GUSTY
KAMISHAK GAP WINDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE, YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS
YET ANOTHER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIANS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE SENDING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
-JH/AM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
LOOKING AHEAD, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA THROUGH WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN BERING BY
FRIDAY. WHILE NOT AS DEEP AS OUR CURRENT BERING LOW, IT WILL STILL
BE A FAIRLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM, SENDING NORTH A STEADY STREAM
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE FRONTS ACROSS THE GULF. A
PARTICULARLY STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE SENT INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL REGIONS, INCLUDING THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS, LIKELY FUNNELING THROUGH TYPICAL GAPS SUCH AS THE
TURNAGAIN ARM AND KAMISHAK GAP. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR, WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF IN
MOST AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK, WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY; THIS COULD HELP BLOCK THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW FROM
MOVING INLAND, KEEPING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW
LONG THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
-CW
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, LIMITING ANY SHOWERS
TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
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