865
FXAK68 PAFC 301322
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
522 AM AKDT THU APR 30 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
KEY MESSAGES:
DISCUSSION:
OVERNIGHT REMAIN QUIET WITH ANY FINAL SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MANY
AREAS SEEING A PERIOD OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. BY EARLY THIS MORNING, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
FURTHER AND LOWERING FOG POTENTIAL ALONG THE MID AND UPPER COOK
INLET AREAS. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER COOK INLET AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. MEANWHILE,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TODAY'S WEATHER DISTURBANCE STARTING TO
PIVOT MORE NORTH AS IT CROSS THE AKPEN AND MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING, THEN UP
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT
WILL LIFT UP THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARDS ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGETOP WINDS
AND SNOW LEVELS INCREASING FROM ABOUT 800-1200 FT TO 1200-2500 FT BY
SATURDAY. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO DOWNSLOPE MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE BOWL, AND LOWER MAT-SU VALLEY KEEPING THESE
AREAS MOSTLY DRY.
WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS, ALLOWING FOR STRONG TURNAGAIN ARM, KNIK, AND
COPPER VALLEY WINDS TO DEVELOP. THE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY, PEAKING ON FRIDAY, THEN DECREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE
ARM ITSELF WHILE SOME SOUTHEAST WINDS MAKE IT INTO TOWN THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW BENDS FURTHER DOWN- INLET BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.
HOWEVER, SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE BOWL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE ANCHORAGE AND EAGLE RIVER HILLSIDE WILL
ALSO SEE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS, POTENTIALLY UP TO 50 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE KNIK AND COPPER VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE TO KODIAK ISLAND,
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SUNDAY BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO BE MORE FOCUSED ON EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF COAST, INCLUDING CORDOVA;
HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
- PP/DAN
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW CENTERED
OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING
HAS LED TO A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES OVERNIGHT ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, WHICH LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RAISES TEMPERATURES
ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN. CURRENT THINKING REGARDING ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN, AND NO MORE
THAN A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND. FOLLOWING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. STEADIER RAINFALL ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES OF THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
LEADS TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND
SECONDARY PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY, ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER NIKOLSKI AS IT
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AS THE
TROUGH BECOMES SQUEEZED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE BERING
SEA AND THE GULF.
-JH
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL KEEP SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
IN AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES WILL SEND A WAVES OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS POOR AT THIS TIME, BUT MOST GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINDS UP TO GALE-FORCE IN NEARBY WATERS.
THINGS GET MESSY BEYOND THIS, WITH THE ONE THING MODELS AGREEING
ON IS LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE HINTS OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPING IN THE GULF BY THIS TIME,
BUT EXACT PLACEMENT WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE WEATHER FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL. STAY TUNED AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING
DAYS!
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST. TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
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