229
FXAK68 PAFC 251334
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
534 AM AKDT MON MAY 25 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW THAT IS LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA. THIS RIDGE HAS MADE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL AREAS SEEING
A NICE, ALBEIT BRIEF, BREAK FROM RAIN SHOWERS. MORE INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE SEEN LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DESPITE MANY
AREAS CLEARING OFF OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES REMAINED NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WORK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AND IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IF
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S (POSSIBLY
SOME 60S) BEFORE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ARRIVES LATER TODAY. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY WITH RAIN MOVING BACK INTO TO KODIAK ISLAND BY
LATE THIS MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTH TO THE KENAI PENINSULA.
INCREASING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING TO SET-UP
ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI UP THROUGH THE MAT VALLEY...KEEPING OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO WORK INTO
HOMER AND UP THROUGH KENAI INITIALLY BEFORE DOWNSLOPING STRENGTHENS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY COULD SEE
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO, BUT MORE
LIKELY WILL JUST SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING HELPING
TO REINFORCE THE COASTAL RIDGE. AS THE COASTAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, GAP FLOW WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. GUSTY
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF ANCHORAGE
BEFORE TURNING MORE DOWN INLET BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ANCHORAGE AND EAGLE RIVER HILLSIDES WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE KNIK WIND WILL
ALSO PICK UP WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR BUTTE AND PALMER. THE COPPER BASIN
WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP SOME TONIGHT BUT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... THE BERING LOW WILL WEAKEN,
BUT KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AS IT GRADUALLY
MEANDERS OVER TO THE GULF SIDE.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
A LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA, AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THOUGH TRANSITIONS
TO ALL RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. RAIN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR BETHEL AND COASTAL AREAS,
INCLUDING KING SALMON AND DILLINGHAM. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ONSHORE. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
BRISTOL BAY AS THE KAMISHAK GAP WIND KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND, ALLOWING
WINDS TO EASE AND PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED, WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND FRONT
EXTENDING OFF A MUCH WEAKER KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE BERING SEA.
KM
.LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE INTERIOR ALLOWING FOR EASTERLY WAVES OF SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND MATANUSKA-SUSITNA VALLEYS.
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
ALSO LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A WEAK RIDGE IN THE BERING
SEA BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA, RESULTING IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNALS OF
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE ARE STARTING TO
EMERGE AS WELL. AS A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE BERING SEA NEXT
WEEKEND, A KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC CAUSING SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
- JOHNSTON
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 5,000 FT. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
TURNAGAIN ARM, PICKING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK FROM 6Z TO 9Z TONIGHT, WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
FLOW DOWN THE COOK INLET WILL DEFLECT THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AWAY
FROM THE TERMINAL AND COULD EVEN CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TOMORROW MORNING.
-CW
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